Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China

Arotolu, TE; Wang, HN; Lv, JN; Kun, S; Huang, L. Y.; Wang, Xiaolin

doi:10.17221/81/2021-vetmed

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 38 publications

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“…According to previous study, Bio 2 (Mean diurnal range) and Bio 4 (Temperature seasonality) are the main factors driving the distribution of two species of mosquito which show different dependence on temperature conditions [62]. Our temperature and livestock population density fi ndings agree with [63] and [64] that temperature infl uences the spread of infectious diseases in many ways. A lower temperature may favor the microorganism's survival in the environment for more prolonged periods causing outbreaks in the small ruminant population.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Modeling the current and future distribution of Brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

Arotolu,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Acta Veterinaria

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Bruce llosis is a bacterial disease caused by various Brucella species, which infect primarily cattle, swine, goats, sheep, and dogs. The disease is typically transmitted to humans through direct contact with diseased animals, consumption of contaminated animal products, or inhalation of airborne pollutants. The majority of cases are caused by consuming unpasteurized goat or sheep milk or cheese. Based on observed Brucellosis occurrence data and ecogeographic variables, a MaxEnt algorithm was used to model the current and future distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin, P.R. China. Our model showed the Brucellosis current distribution and predicts suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios. In the new representatives; SSP 2.6 and SSP 4.5 for the year 2050s and 2070s, our model predicts an expansion in the current suitable areas. This indicates that under the possible climate changes in the future, the living space of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin China will expand significantly. Ecogeographic variables that contributed significantly to the distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin are revealed by our model. The results of our study will promote comparisons with future research and provide a new perspective to inform decision-making in the field of public health in Qinghai province.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Modeling the current and future distribution of Brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

Arotolu,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Acta Veterinaria

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The Geographical Coexist of the Migratory Birds, Ticks, and Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus May Potentially Contribute to the Passive Spreading of Nairobi Sheep Disease

Kim,

Wang,

Cha

et al. 2023

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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Nairobi sheep disease (NSD) is a hemorrhagic vector-borne disease of small ruminants caused by the Nairobi sheep disease virus (NSDV), also known as Ganjam virus (GV). NSDV and GV refer to the same virus. The NSDV has been identified in East Africa, India, Sri Lanka, and China, and NSDV vector ticks can be carried by birds. There is few research on the mechanism of the global cycle and spillover of NSDV. Based on the prediction of the high probability distribution areas of NSD by the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), the possible passive transport routes of NSDV vector ticks by migratory birds were simulated for further evaluation. The transmission probability of NSDV vector ticks by migrating birds was calculated using evaluations of the parasitism intensity of ticks on migratory birds at start points, the flying burden of parasitized birds, and the attachment coefficient of ticks on birds during migration. A total of 31 potential transport routes were predicted, which, through interaction with each other, constitute a spreading network for NSDV. Seven species of migratory birds were predicted as intra or interregional carriers. Our study first provides measurable support for estimating the possibility of passive migration of NSDV vector ticks by migratory birds that may be potential carriers of ticks and proposes a transmission mechanism between all known natural foci and potential natural foci. These findings highlight the necessity of cooperation in the management of the NSDV in all known and potential natural foci located in different countries, with the aim of blocking global circulation in a cost-effective way. Furthermore, these findings may also contribute to the prevention of other similar diseases.

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Unveiling the spatial distribution and transboundary pathways of FMD serotype O in Western China and its bordering countries

Zhang,

Chai,

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact on domestic animals and threatens wildlife survival in China and border countries. However, effective surveillance and prevention of this disease is often incomplete and unattainable due to the cost, the great diversity of wildlife hosts, the changing range and dynamics, and the diversity of FMDV. In this study, we used predictive models to reveal the spread and risk of FMD in anticipation of identifying key nodes to control its spread. For the first time, the spatial distribution of FMD serotype O was predicted in western China and border countries using a niche model, which is a combination of eco-geographic, human, topographic, and vegetation variables. The transboundary least-cost pathways (LCPs) model for ungulates in the study area were also calculated. Our study indicates that FMD serotype O survival is seasonal at low altitudes (March and June) and more sensitive to temperature differences at high altitudes. FMD serotype O risk was higher in Central Asian countries and both were highly correlated with the population variables. Ten LCPs were obtained representing Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.

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Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China

Cited by 3 publications

References 38 publications

Modeling the current and future distribution of Brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

Modeling the current and future distribution of Brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

The Geographical Coexist of the Migratory Birds, Ticks, and Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus May Potentially Contribute to the Passive Spreading of Nairobi Sheep Disease

Unveiling the spatial distribution and transboundary pathways of FMD serotype O in Western China and its bordering countries

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