EPH79 Projections of Future Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Australia. Estimates up to 2030

Abushanab, Dina; Liew, Danny; Al‐Badriyeh, Daoud; Marquina, Clara; Ademi, Zanfina

doi:10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.831

Cited by 1 publication

(13 citation statements)

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“…To date, the only study that used a dynamic modelling to estimate the burden of CVD with T2D, was undertaken by our group, for a 2022-2031 forecast in Australia. 6 However, this study is not representative of the Qatari setting. In this study, we sought to forecast the health and economic burden of CVD in T2D in the Qatar context at the population level over the next decade, 2023-2032, using the dynamic modelling technique.…”

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confidence: 90%

“…The authors developed the model, explored assumptions and identified appropriate data sources following a review of the relevant literature including key existing studies in similar disease areas. 6,7 The structure of the model is depicted in Figure 1. The model was built in Microsoft Excel 2016 (Microsoft Corporation) and adapted the Qatari public health care and societal perspective.…”

Section: Dynamic Multistate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…because of the dynamic nature of the model), and in line with previous studies, all outcomes were reported for the total population, not per person. 6,7,9 The model comprises a 10-year time horizon (from 2023 to 2032) and includes Qatari citizens and residents with T2D, aged 40-79 years, stratified according to age and sex. 10 The model includes three health states: 'Alive with T2D and pre-CVD' health state, 'Alive with T2D and post-CVD' health state and the 'Dead' state (Figure 1).…”

Section: Dynamic Multistate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…External validation was also considered by comparing the findings of our model with those reported in national reports and a similar Australian study by our group. 6 3 | RESULTS…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our model findings were validated against the results reported by local and international references. 6,15,29 The CHEERS checklist is presented in Table S20.…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10‐year forecasting model

Abushanab,

Al‐Badriyeh,

Marquina

et al. 2023

Diabetes Obesity Metabolism

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AimsTo predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar.Materials and MethodsA dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non‐fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40‐79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non‐fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality‐adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates.ResultsOver 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249‐112 172] non‐fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283‐65 520) non‐fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472‐14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718‐3 830 669) total quality‐adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53‐147.40 billion (US$2.06‐40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07‐162.60 billion (US$292.05 million‐44.55 billion)].ConclusionsThe findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

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confidence: 90%

Section: Dynamic Multistate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dynamic Multistate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…External validation was also considered by comparing the findings of our model with those reported in national reports and a similar Australian study by our group. 6 3 | RESULTS…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our model findings were validated against the results reported by local and international references. 6,15,29 The CHEERS checklist is presented in Table S20.…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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