Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling

Mangoni, Lorenzo; Pistilli, M.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3567770

Cited by 21 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…A great deal of effort has been invested in the estimation of epidemic parameters of Covid-19 in the early stage for China and some other countries (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13). In (3), the authors analyzed the temporal dynamics of the disease in China, Italy and France in the period between 22nd of January and 15th of March 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic

et al. 2020

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The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its spread. Since the earliest stages of this major pandemic, academics have done a huge amount of research in order to understand the disease, develop medication, vaccines and tests, and model its spread. Among these studies, a great deal of effort has been invested in the estimation of epidemic parameters in the early stage, for the countries affected by Covid-19, hence to predict the course of the epidemic but the variability of the controls over the course of the epidemic complicated the modeling processes. In this article, the determination of the basic reproduction number, the mean duration of the infectious period, the estimation of the timing of the peak of the epidemic wave is discussed using early phase data. Daily case reports and daily fatalities for China,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic

et al. 2020

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“…We will keep the values of the parameters and as it is without any change, while the other parameters will take the values in Table 3: Table 3. It is noted in figure 8 that the spreading of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia passed through its peak point on [16][17][18] July 2020, which agrees with the actual data; after that, the spread has slowed down and kept this attitude until the current days, and the reproduction number takes the value which means the situation is stable According to this curve, we can also see that the number of daily infections on October 18, 2020, will be approximately 600 persons/day, and we can predict that the spreading situation will go to a more stable position and better state.…”

Section: Applying the Seirq Model To Saudi Arabia Data Of The Spread mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…It takes time for the pathogen to replicate and develop itself in the new host. In general, the exposed (latent) cycle follows the sensitive process 4,6,17,19,25 .…”

Section: Formulation Of a Novel Coronavirus Disease (Seirq Model)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If the matrix is obtained from the linearization and is the Jacobian evaluated at equilibrium , the condition means that the equilibrium is isolated, which means there is a disk around it that does not contain other equilibria 6,17,22,24 .…”

Section: Condition Of Equilibrium (Hartman-grobman Theorem)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, the published models have not, to date, taken into account the environmental position of COVID-19 transmission. Several other modeling studies for the COVID-19 outbreak have also been carried out 6,8,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Dynamical Modelling of the Epidemic Diseases to Assessing the Rates of Spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: SEIRQ Model

Youssef¹,

Alghamdi²,

Ezzat³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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A new model of critical epidemic dynamics for the emergence of the new coronavirus COVID-19 is being established in this paper. A new approach to the assessment and control of the COVID 19 epidemic is given with the SEIRQ pandemic model. This paper uses real knowledge on the distribution of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia for mathematical modeling and dynamic analyses. The reproductive number and detailed stability analysis are provided in the SEIRQ model dynamics. In a Jacobian method of linearization, we will address the domain of the solution and the equilibrium situation based on the SEIRQ model. The equilibrium and its importance have been proven, and a study of the stability of the equilibrium free from diseases has been implemented. The reproduction number was evaluated in accordance with its internal parameters. The Lyapunov theorem of stability has proven the global stability of the current model's equilibrium. The SEIRQ model was contrasted by comparing the results based on the SEIRQ model with the real COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia. Numerical evaluation and predictions were given. The results indicate that the SEIRQ model is a strong model for the study of the spread of epidemics, such as COVID-19. At the end of this work, we implemented an optimum protocol that can quickly stop the spread of COVID-19 among the Saudi populations.

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Study on the SEIQR model and applying the epidemiological rates of COVID-19 epidemic spread in Saudi Arabia

Youssef

Alghamdi

Ezzat

et al. 2021

Infectious Disease Modelling

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This article attempts to establish a mathematical epidemic model for the outbreak of the new COVID-19 coronavirus. A new consideration for evaluating and controlling the COVID-19 outbreak will be constructed based on the SEIQR Pandemic Model. In this paper, the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia has been used for the mathematical model and dynamic analyses. Including the new reproductive number and detailed stability analysis, the dynamics of the proposed SEIQR model have been applied. The local sensitivity of the reproduction number has been analyzed. The domain of solution and equilibrium based on the SEIQR model have been proved using a Jacobian linearization process. The state of equilibrium and its significance have been proved, and a study of the integrity of the disease-free equilibrium has been carried out. The Lyapunov stability theorem demonstrated the global stability of the current model equilibrium. The SEIQR model has been numerically validated and projected by contrasting the results from the SEIQR model with the actual COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia. The result of this paper shows that the SEIQR model is a model that is effective in analyzing epidemic spread, such as COVID-19. At the end of the study, we have implemented the protocol which helped the Saudi population to stop the spread of COVID-19 rapidly.

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Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

What Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic

What Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic

A New Dynamical Modelling of the Epidemic Diseases to Assessing the Rates of Spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: SEIRQ Model

Study on the SEIQR model and applying the epidemiological rates of COVID-19 epidemic spread in Saudi Arabia

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