Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa

Abstract

This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell×year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1° × 1° latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic, and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and anti-malaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.

Ancestral institutions and the salience of African ethnicity: Theory and Evidence

“…Moreover, the findings are consistent with the evidence provided by Maseland (2018), suggesting that colonialism has generated a substantial yet temporary institutional shock. The paper also adds to the literature on the historical and institutional origins of ethnic salience (Ali et al, 2019;Cervellati et al, 2019;McNamee, 2019) and/or ethnic diversity (Ahlerup and Olsson, 2012;Cervellati et al, 2019;Larcom, 2019;Leeson, 2005;Posner, 2005). Furthermore, it contributes to the burgeoning literature on the long-lasting impact of precolonial institutions (Amodio et al, 2022;Chlouba et al, 2022;Michalopoulos and Papaioannou, 2020).…”

“…According to the theory and empirical evidence of Ahlerup and Olsson (2012), ELF emerged among peripheral populations in response to an insufficient supply of collective goods. For Africa, Cervellati et al (2019) theorizes and provides evidence that premodern populations relied on sexual endogamy to limit malaria prevalence, and thus, ethnic diversity in Africa today is the result of ancestral malaria in Africa. Whatley and Gillezeau (2011) claim and provide evidence that Africa's ELF is an endogenous outcome of the social conflict associated with the slave trade.…”

“…However, another related line of research argues that historical factors matter above and beyond these factors. For instance, McNamee (2019) showed that differences in the colonial rule are related to the relative strength of ethnic identification, while Cervellati et al (2019) showed that ethnic diversity and salience are the results of exposure to ancestral malaria. This paper adds to this research by rooting the salience of ethnicity in the precolonial statehood of Africa.…”

“…The post-treatment controls are sets of variables that are plausibly correlated with the current attitudes of individuals. In their work, Cervellati et al (2019) show that malaria affected the origin of ethnic groups. Likewise, Acemoglu et al (2001) argue that the disease environment early European settlers faced shaped the type of colonial institutions.…”

Conflict, Civil Wars, and Human Development

“…Conflict entails manifold negative consequences on various aspects of health, as discussed above. At the same time, various papers have made the point that ill health is a potent driver of conflict (Cervellati et al (2017(Cervellati et al ( , 2021; Berlanda et al (2022)).…”