Epidemics and Conflict: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak in Western Africa

Gonzalez-Torres, Ada; Esposito, Elena

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3544606

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…One strand of the literature has studied the political economy of epidemics, focusing on how these events relate to and affect political outcomes. Studies have focused on different dimensions, such as electoral behavior (Beall et al, 2016;Adida et al, 2019;Campante et al, 2020), state legitimacy (Fluckiger et al, 2019), women empowerment (Bandiera et al, 2019), andconflict (Gonzalez-Torres andEsposito, 2017). More related to our findings, Maffioli (2020) finds that in Liberia the government's response to the Ebola outbreak was strategic in such a way that relief efforts were not allocated efficiently but privileged electorally swing villages.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Corruption in the Times of Pandemia

Gallego

Prem

2020

SSRN Journal

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The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Latin American and the Caribbean Economic Association. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but LACEA takes no institutional policy positions.LACEA working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Corruption in the Times of Pandemia

Gallego

Prem

2020

SSRN Journal

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“…Almost all of the Ebola epidemics in West and Central Africa were accompanied by distrust, violent resistance to epidemic policies, and civil violence, particularly during the 2014-16 outbreak in Guinea but also in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Cohn & Kutalek, 2016;Gonzalez-Torres & Esposito, 2016). Drawing on analysis of the Ebola crisis, Gonzalez-Torres and Esposito (2016) assert that "epidemics spark civil violence" such as protests and riots but not interstate or civil wars or violence with a political or ethnic character related to previous civil wars.…”

Section: Distrust and Violent Resistance To Official Epidemic Responses Have Featured In Historic Epidemics With Variable Patterns And Vamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The existing literature base on whether or not epidemics/pandemics cause conflict is very limited and generally lacks consensus (Sisk, 2020). A non-peer-reviewed article finds that Ebola outbreaks in West Africa increased civil unrest in the form of riots and protests but did "not appear to trigger underlying tensions related to the civil war", with "no differential effects in places that experienced higher violence" during previous wars (Gonzalez-Torres & Esposito, 2016). Conversely, Cervellati et al (2017) find that high malaria risk for adults directly increases the likelihood of civil violence 76 in Africa due to it shaping the opportunity cost of violence.…”

Section: Armed Conflict Social Cohesion and Armed Actorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs

Herbert¹,

Marquette²

2021

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This paper reviews emerging evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on governance and conflict, using a “governance and conflict first” approach in contrast to other research and synthesis on COVID-19 in the social sciences that tends to be structured through a public health lens. It largely focuses on evidence on low- and middle-income countries but also includes a number of examples from high-income countries, reflecting the global nature of the crisis. It is organised around four cross-cutting themes that have enabled the identification of emerging bodies of evidence and/or analysis: Power and legitimacy; Effectiveness, capacity, and corruption; Violence, unrest, and conflict; and Resilience, vulnerability, and risk. The paper concludes with three over-arching insights that have emerged from the research: (1) the importance of leadership; (2) resilience and what “fixing the cracks” really means; and (3) why better ways are needed to add up all the “noise” when it comes to COVID-19 and evidence.

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“…Nascent models find epidemics fueled wars in China from 1470 to 1911, taking account of other factors [70]. Results show states with higher rates of vector-borne parasitic diseases [71] and more HIV/AIDS [72], and areas with more Ebola in West Africa [73] and Covid− 19 in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mozambique [74] and India [75] have more conflict. In Africa, areas with high and low malaria rates are at a smaller risk of conflict than areas with moderate rates [76].…”

Section: Armed Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-related migration and population health: social science-oriented dynamic simulation model

Reuveny

2021

BMC Public Health

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Background Social science models find the ecological impacts of climate change (EICC) contribute to internal migration in developing countries and, less so, international migration. Projections expect massive climate-related migration in this century. Nascent research calls to study health, migration, population, and armed conflict potential together, accounting for EICC and other factors. System science offers a way: develop a dynamic simulation model (DSM). We aim to validate the feasibility and usefulness of a pilot DSM intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and a basis for identifying model extensions to make it less simplified and more realistic. Methods Studies have separately examined essential parts. Our DSM integrates their results and computes composites of health problems (HP), health care (HC), non-EICC environmental health problems (EP), and environmental health services (ES) by origin site and by immigrants and natives in a destination site, and conflict risk and intensity per area. The exogenous variables include composites of EICC, sociopolitical, economic, and other factors. We simulate the model for synthetic input values and conduct sensitivity analyses. Results The simulation results refer to generic origin and destination sites anywhere on Earth. The effects’ sizes are likely inaccurate from a real-world view, as our input values are synthetic. Their signs and dynamics are plausible, internally consistent, and, like the sizes, respond logically in sensitivity analyses. Climate migration may harm public health in a host area even with perfect HC/ES qualities and full access; and no HP spillovers across groups, conflict, EICC, and EP. Deviations from these conditions may worsen everyone’s health. We consider adaptation options. Conclusions This work shows we can start developing DSMs to understand climate migration and public health by examining each case with its own inputs. Validation of our pilot model suggests we can use it as intended. We lay a path to making it more realistic for policy analysis.

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Epidemics and Conflict: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak in Western Africa

Cited by 18 publications

References 76 publications

Corruption in the Times of Pandemia

Corruption in the Times of Pandemia

COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs

Climate-related migration and population health: social science-oriented dynamic simulation model

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