Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Dali between 2013 and 2021

Abstract

Background: Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) poses a global pediatric public health problem. There is no effective cure, so prevention and control of HFMD appears crucial. Spatiotemporal aggregation analysis allows exploration of disease occurrence, epidemic pattern, transmission rules, etiology and transmission risk, giving a basis for disease prevention and control, what information can provide in terms of the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Dali? Objectives: This study aimed to Combine with the spatiotemporal aggregation analysis, which augment scientific reference and provide theoretical guidance for prevention and control research into HFMD and other epidemic diseases. Methods: Infectious disease surveillance data and pathogen test results from the Dali Center for Disease Control and Prevention relating to HFMD were collated. An approach focusing on descriptive epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering was adopted. Results: A total of 49 093 HFMD cases were reported in Dali between 2013 and 2021, giving a mean annual incidence of 150.90/100 000 and 2 793 out of 4 634 samples tested positive (60.27%). Annual incidence showed significant differences between years (Χ² = 2 614.63, p < 0.001) with the majority of cases occurring during the summer. Diaspora children (n = 32 374, 65.94%) aged between 0 to 6 years old were predominantly affected and incidence rate varied by sex with males more likely to be infected (Χ² = 755.65, p < 0.001). Yongping(437.43/100 000), Binchuan(344.78/100 000) and Dali City (294.10/100 000) showed the highest incidence rates with those of adjacent areas being relevant. Clusters were more likely to occur between 4/1-7/31 and 10/1-12/31 and data were gathered from Dali City, Yangbi, Binchuan, Yongping, Yunlong, Nanjian, Weishan and Heqing. Conclusions: HFMD in Dali was concentrated in the summer and predominantly affected preschool children. The highest incidences were found in Yunlong, Binchuan and Dali City. Incidence rates were correlated in time and space with dominant pathogens being CA16 and other EVs. The current data relating to the trend of the epidemic indicates that Dali public health departments may benefit from timely prevention and control measures.

Understanding COVID-19: comparison of spatio-temporal analysis methods used to study epidemic spread patterns in the United States

“…The scanning statistic is defined as the maximum likelihood ratio among all possible scanning windows Z, based on the total number of diagnosed patients N (Huang et al, 2022;Li et al, 2016;Yin et al, 2007;Zhang et al, 2012).…”