Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

Abstract

<jats:p>This study aims to inform herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccine development, licensure, and implementation by delineating the population-level impact of vaccination. Mathematical models were constructed to describe the transmission dynamics in presence of prophylactic or therapeutic vaccines assuming 50% efficacy, with application to the United States. Catch-up prophylactic vaccination will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 58%, incidence rate by 60%, seroprevalence by 21%, and avert yearly as much as 350,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was only 50 by 2050, 34 by prioritizing those aged 15–19 years, 4 by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, 43 by prioritizing women, and 47 by prioritizing men. Therapeutic vaccination of infected adults with symptomatic disease will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 12%, incidence rate by 13%, seroprevalence by 4%, and avert yearly as much as 76,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was eight by 2050, two by prioritizing those aged 15–19 years, three by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, seven by prioritizing men, and ten by prioritizing women. HSV-2 vaccination offers an impactful and cost-effective intervention to prevent genital herpes medical and psychosexual disease burden.</jats:p>

The epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

“…HSV-2 infection was found to be the etiological cause of half of GUD cases in this region, and virtually all cases of genital herpes. These findings demonstrate the urgent need for both prophylactic and therapeutic HSV-2 vaccines to tackle the disease burden of this infection,(82) and argue for further acceleration of ongoing efforts for vaccine development. (26, 27, 83)…”

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

“…HSV-2 infection was found to be the etiological cause of half the GUD cases in this region, and virtually all cases of genital herpes. These findings demonstrate the urgent need for both prophylactic and therapeutic HSV-2 vaccines to tackle the disease burden of this infection [82], and argue for further acceleration of ongoing efforts for vaccine development [26,27,83]. Abbreviations: HSV-2 = Herpes simplex virus type 2.…”

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review, meta-analyses and metaregressions

“…[20][21][22] This highlights the critical need for HSV-2 vaccination as a strategic approach to control transmission and to reduce if not eliminate the clinical, psychosexual and economic burden of this infection. 18 [23][24][25][26] Against this context, the WHO is spearheading a multisectorial effort to establish the business case and return on investment for HSV-2 vaccines. 18 19 27 28 To inform this effort, this study aims to characterise HSV-2 epidemiology in Latin America and the Caribbean by delineating HSV-2 incidence and antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) levels, estimating pooled mean HSV-2 seroprevalence in the different at-risk populations, identifying predictors of high seroprevalence, and estimating the pooled means for the proportion of HSV-2 detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and the proportion of HSV-2 detection in genital herpes.…”