Epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease 2019: a pooled analysis of publicly reported individual data of 1155 cases from seven countries

Abstract

medRxiv preprint generally longer incubation and serial interval of less severe cases suggests a high risk of longterm epidemic in the absence of appropriate control measures.

A rapid review of available evidence on the serial interval and generation time of COVID-19

“…These cannot be considered representative of the countries from which they were drawn. The same conclusion applies to the studies by Ma et al [25], Ferretti et al…”

“…Ganyani et al [24] used a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for the same purpose. Ma et al [25] made an effort to overcome this issue by setting out a clear methodology for ensuring that the order of transmission was correct. • Generally, publicly available datasets were used in the studies under review.…”

Quantitative COVID-19 infectiousness estimate correlating with viral shedding and culturability suggests 68% pre-symptomatic transmissions

“…The inverse problem of the infectiousness profile was solved by assuming an incubation period from Lauer et al 16 The serial interval predicted using this estimate is shown in dotted red line. While Ma et al 11 , Du et al 10 , showed fits to their serial interval data, He et al 7 made a similar estimate for the infectiousness based on the smaller data size of 77 patients. Figure 2.…”

“…Inferring infectiousness from serial interval. We combined the serial interval data of 689 patients from Ma et al 11 , 485 patients from Du et al 10 , and 77 patients from He et al, 7 to build a larger data set. The inverse problem of the infectiousness profile was solved by assuming an incubation period from Lauer et al 16 The serial interval predicted using this estimate is shown in dotted red line.…”

Bidirectional contact tracing dramatically improves COVID-19 control

“…Asymptomatic carriers, who reportedly bear equivalent viral loads to patients exhibiting symptoms (5), originally estimated at 18% of infected individuals on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (6), now include a reported majority of infected sailors on the Theodore Roosevelt (7) and 79% of mothers who tested positive in an obstetrics ward in New York (8). Population surveys in Italy, Iceland, and China have reported intermediate values around 45% (9)(10)(11). High rates of asymptomatic carriers might result in undetected transmission chains that could reduce the efficacy of forward-tracing.…”