Epidemiological Prediction of Intestinal Infection Caused by Some Non-Polioenteroviruses of Coxsackie Group a Among the Population of Azerbaijan for 2015–2024

Abstract

Background. Despite significant achievements in research and diagnostic practice, as well as in the field of Molecular and Biological Technology, the problem of non-polioenterovirus infections is still at the stage of serious research.
 Purpose. The purpose of the study epidemiological prevalense for some non-polioenteroviruses of Coxsackie group A among the population of Azerbaijan for 2015-2024.
 Materials and methods. In the study, the period of some non-polioenteroviruses belonging to Coxsackie group A – KA18, KA20 and KA21 serotypes was confirmed by polymerase chain reaction among the population in Baku during 2006-2010.
 The study was affirmed by design-descriptively; by method – clinically; by volume – by generalization; by type – scientifically; by material – retrospectively and prospectively; by term – transversely; by place – clinically.
 Statistical analysis was carried out in MS EXCELL-2019 and IBM Statistics SPSS-26 using determinant and regression methods (ARIMA).
 Results. On the basis of results of study the statistical reliability of prognostic model showing prediction of stabil appearing level of intestinal infection caused by some non-polioenteroviruses of Coxsackie group A (KA18, KA20 and KA21) among the child population of Azerbaijan for 2015-2024 have been determined.
 Practical implications. The results of investigation show the advisability of the using of ARIMA models for epidemiological prediction of intestinal infection caused by Coxsackie group A among the population in Azerbaijan.