Epidemiological Profile and Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines

Haw, Nel Jason; Uy, Jhanna; Sy, Karla Therese L; Abrigo, Michael R.M.

doi:10.1101/2020.07.15.20154336

Cited by 11 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…13 Patients in this study are also mainly from the older age range, with the 51-60 and 61-70 having the most number combined; this may be because PGH is a COVID-19 referral center generally receiving patients that are critically ill and needing tertiary care which in all likelihood will be those who are older. More than half of those admitted are male (55.72%), similar to the reported sex predominance in other local epidemiological studies 14,15 and the weekly WHO COVID-19 Philippine situational report since April 2020. 16 Vulnerable individuals were identified as minors, elderly above 60 years of age, pregnant women, and those having considerable underlying health conditions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Hospitalization Expenditure of COVID-19 Patients at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) with PhilHealth Coverage

Tabuñar

Dominado

2021

Acta Med Philipp

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Objective. This research aimed to determine the in-patient expenditure of COVID-19 adult patient s and their out-of-pocket (OOP) payments at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) after the new PhilHealth case rate coverage was instituted last 15 April 2020. It also intended to present the preliminary data on the expenses incurred by COVID patients during the initial phase of the pandemic in the country. Methods. This study was a retrospective chart review of admitted COVID-19 patients aged 19 years old and above from 15 April to 14 August 2020 at UP-PGH that availed of PhilHealth COVID-19 case rate benefits package (C19C1-C4). Data were analyzed to extract overall expenses, out-of-pocket (OOP) charges, cost centers utilization, and other hospitalization expenditure sources. Results. Of the 691 COVID-19 patients included during the study period, 55.72% were male, mostly belonging to the 61-70 age range with a median age of 58. The average in-hospital stay was 14.20 days, and 76.99% were under charity services, with the moderate (42.84%) and mild (25.33%) pneumonia cases accounting for 68.17% of the admissions. Total hospital expenses clustered around Php51,000 to 200,000 (~USD 1,041 to 4,156), most spending between Php101,000 to 150,000 (~USD 2,078 to 3,118). The top three cost centers and expenditure sources were pharmacies, personal protective equipment (PPE) usage, and laboratory. The average OOP payment for patients less than 60 years old was higher, ranging from Php 25,899 to Php 44,428.63 (USD 538 to USD 924.44) compared to patients older than 60 (Php4,005.60 to Php 32,920.20 ~ USD 83.35 to 684.98). The most OOP charges were for the age group 19-30, amounting to Php 44,428.63 (USD 924.44). Conclusion. Preliminary findings of this study gave an actual representation of the expenses of COVID-19 patients, which can guide future utilization of the national health insurance during unexpected pandemics. Early price regulation of new therapeutic interventions, diagnostic tests, and medical supplies, e.g., PPEs, disinfectants, air filters, are measures that can be implemented.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Hospitalization Expenditure of COVID-19 Patients at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) with PhilHealth Coverage

Tabuñar

Dominado

2021

Acta Med Philipp

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“…The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 found in Sergipe state was distributed heterogeneously according to geographical location, with higher prevalence in metropolitan area than other municipalities. This supports the findings of previous studies which showed higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living in highly dense areas compared to areas with a smaller population [3,10,14,15].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the poorest region of Brazil: results from a population-based study

et al. 2021

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Population-based seroprevalence studies on COVID-19 in low-and middle-income countries are lacking. We investigated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Sergipe state, Northeast Brazil, using rapid IgM-IgG antibody test and fluorescence immunoassay. The seroprevalence was 9.3% (95%CI 8.5-10.1), 10.2% (95% CI 9.2-11.3) for women and 7.9% (IC 95% 6.8-9.1) for men (p = 0.004). We found a decline in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies according to age, but the differences were not statistically significant: 0-19 years (9.9%; 95% CI 7.8-12.5), 20-59 years (9.3%; 95% CI 8.4-10.3), and ≥60 years (9.0%; 95% CI 7.5-10.8) (p = 0.517). The metropolitan area had a higher seroprevalence (11.7%, 95% CI 10.3-13.2) than outside municipalities (8.0%, 95%CI 7.2-8.9) (p < 0.001). These findings highlight the importance of serosurveillance to estimate the real impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and thereby provide data to better understand the spread of the virus, as well as providing information to guide stay-at-home measures and other policies. In addition, these results may be useful as basic data to follow the progress of COVID-19 outbreak as social restriction initiatives start to be relaxed in Brazil.

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“…While we included “adjuster” parameters to allow the symptomatic proportion, hospitalisation, and mortality rates to vary for the Philippines (similar to 25), we assumed that other parameters were similar to HIC, which may be inaccurate. However, most parameter estimates appear reasonable given previously reported COVID-19 epidemiology in the Philippines (26). When more data becomes available from the Philippines or similar settings, the current model can be updated with new parameter values.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

Caldwell

Lara-Tuprio

Teng

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundCOVID-19 appears to have caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socio-economics, climate, surveillance, and policy responses. The Philippines is a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak but has recently curtailed transmission while gradually easing interventions.MethodsWe applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy, MHS) to represent the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and projected the impacts of easing interventions.ResultsPopulation age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Several of the fitted epidemiological parameters were consistent with those reported in high-income settings. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 15-32%. The December 2020 case detection rate was estimated at ∼14%, population recovered at ∼12%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.ConclusionsCOVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, and mobility, and the epidemic can be understood within a similar framework as for high-income settings. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS measures should allow the Philippines to maintain epidemic control, but disease resurgence remains a threat due to low population immunity and detection rates.

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Epidemiological Profile and Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines

Cited by 11 publications

References 20 publications

Hospitalization Expenditure of COVID-19 Patients at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) with PhilHealth Coverage

Hospitalization Expenditure of COVID-19 Patients at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) with PhilHealth Coverage

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the poorest region of Brazil: results from a population-based study

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

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