Summary Temporal trends in the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancers during 1972 to 1989 were addressed in urban Shanghai, the location of China's longest standing cancer registry. Over the 18 year study period, esophageal cancer rates decreased more than 50% from 28.8/100,000 person-years in 1972-74 to 13.3/100,000 in 1987-89 among men and from 11.3/100,000 to 5.4/100,000 among women. Reductions
Materials and methodsDetails on the materials and methods used in this analysis have been described elsewhere (Jin et al., 1993 (Table I). In the 18 year period, the incidence rates for esophageal cancer decreased more than 50% from 28.8/100,000 person-years in 1972-74 to 13.3/100,000 in 1987-89 among men and from 11.3/100,000 to 5.4/100,000 among women. Gastric cancer also declined steadily over time, although not as rapidly. The incidence among men was 50.1/100,000 in 1987-89, about four-fifths that in 1972-74. Among women, however, the rates showed only a 2.9% decline over the entire period. Both esophageal and gastric cancers were more common among men than women; male/ female rate ratios ranged from 2.2 to 2.6, with little change over time. The gastric/esophageal cancer rate ratios almost doubled from two to about four from 1972-74 to 1987-89 among both men and women, reflecting a sharper decline in esophageal cancer incidence over the study period. Table II presents the age-specific trends in esophageal and gastric cancer incidence rates. Esophageal cancer decreased across all age groups, with greater rates of decline in the younger age groups among both men and women (Figure 1) When the age-specific trends for gastric cancer are plotted according to cohort year of birth, some interesting patterns emerge (Figure 3). Among men and women, risk increased among the earliest cohorts, levelled off, declined among those born during the 1910s-1930s, and rose subsequently. The downward trend for esophageal cancer incidence, however, was observed for all birth cohorts (Figure 4).
DiscussionAs seen in many developing regions in the world (Muir et al., 1987), cancers of the esophagus and stomach are among the most common forms of malignancy in Shanghai. From 1972-74 to 1987-89, however, age-adjusted incidence rates