Epidemiological Situation on Tick-Borne Rickettsioses in the Russian Federation in 2010–2019 and Prognosis for 2020

Abstract

Objective of the study was to analyze the incidence of Siberian tick-borne typhus (STBT) in the Russian Federation between 2010 and 2019, Astrakhan spotted fever (ASF) and Mediterranean fever (MF) since official registration, and forecast the development of the epidemic process for endemic rickettsioses for 2020. Materials and methods. The analysis of the incidence of STBT, ASF and MF in the Russian Federation over the period of 2010–2019, 2013–2019 and 2014–2019, respectively, in relation to the results of zoological-entomological monitoring. Results and discussion. The average long-term incidence rate of STBT for 2010–2019 in the Russian Federation on the whole was 1.1 0 /0000 (DI95 1.05÷1.08) without trends towards change. The maximum relative incidence of STBT is typical for the Siberian Federal District (SFD) where the average long-term incidence rate for 2010–2019 amounted to 6.28 per 100 thousand of the population. In the second place is the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) – 5.17 0 /0000, in third – the Ural Federal District (UFD) – 0.1 0 /0000. When assessing the 10‑year dynamics of the relative incidence of STBT, we have revealed a significant tendency to increase in the FEFD, a tendency to stabilize in the SFD and a significant downward trend – in the UFD. A reliable increasing trend in STBT incidence was detected in the Altai Republic and in the Khabarovsk Territory. Major decline in STBT incidence was observed in the Trans-Baikal territory, Krasnoyarsk territory, Kurgan Region and the Republic of Khakassia. There is a marked tendency to increase in the incidence of MF in the Republic of Crimea. In the Astrakhan Region and the Republic of Kalmykia, there is an expressed tendency towards the reduction in the ASF morbidity rates.

Features of the Epidemiological Situation on Tick-Borne Rickettsioses in the Russian Federation in 2010–2020 and Prognosis for 2021

“…следует отметить, что для всех эндемичных по скт субъектов сФо, кроме республики тыва, фактические показатели заболеваемости в 2020 г. оказались в пределах доверительных значений, прогнозируемых годом ранее [18]. в республике тыва фактический показатель заболеваемости скт в 2020 г.…”

“…в Дальневосточном федеральном округе в трех из шести эндемичных по скт субъектах фактические показатели заболеваемости оказались ниже предшествующих среднемноголетних значений [18]: в 3 раза -еврейская автономная область (3,73 0 / 0000 ), в 2,5 раза -хабаровский край (5,21 0 / 0000 ) и в 1,5 разаприморский край (4,04 0 / 0000 ). причины данного обстоятельства требуют специального рассмотрения.…”

“…2010-2020 =38,3 %, R 2 =51,0 %, р=0,0135). Фактические показатели относительной инцидентности согласуются с прогнозом [18].…”