Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common genetically determined disease in the United States. It causes multisystem disease primarily involving the gastrointestinal tract and the respiratory system. Approximately 80% of patients die of progressive respiratory disease (1). Lung transplantation, as heart-lung, cadaveric bilateral single lung, and living-donor procedures, remains the most aggressive treatment of end-stage lung disease since its introduction (2-4). However, complications of lung transplantation are the second most frequent cause of death for patients afflicted with CF, accounting for approximately 12% of deaths in 2002 (1).Because of the high risks associated with lung transplantation, we recently analyzed its effect on survival in patients with CF stratified by 5-year predicted survival. We used the logistic regression survival model of CF that we previously validated to determine 5-year predicted survival (5). This model includes nine variables and one interaction to make accurate predictions of 5-year survival: age, sex, FEV 1 , weight-for-age z score, pancreatic sufficiency status, diabetes status, Staphylococcus aureus infection status, Burkholderia cepacia infection status, and number of acute exacerbations of CF in 1 year, and an interaction term between B. cepacia and number of acute exacerbations.Using this model, we demonstrated that only patients with a less than 30% chance of living 5 years had a clear survival benefit from lung transplantation (6). Lung transplantation decreased survival for patients with a 5-year predicted survival greater than 50%. Patients with a 30 to 50% chance of 5-year survival had essentially no survival effect of lung transplantation in 5 years of follow-up. Physicians wishing to apply this model to individual patients can use worksheets that we have provided to manually calculate a 5-year predicted survival (aje.oupjournals.org/cgi/ content/full/153/4/345/DC1) (or contact the authors).In our earlier analysis, patients stratified before transplantation into different 5-year predicted survivorship groups all had the same post-transplant survivorship (6, 7). However, if different factors determine pre-and post-transplant survivorship, patients with similar predicted 5-year nontransplanted survival may have significant differences in post-transplantation survival.