Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Brazil: using a mathematical model to estimate the outbreak peak and temporal evolution

Tang, Yuanji; Serdan, Tamires Duarte Afonso; Masi, Laureane Nunes; Tang, Sherry; Gorjão, Renata; Hirabara, Sandro Massao

doi:10.1080/22221751.2020.1785337

Cited by 27 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…However, these interventions make this pandemic a problem more significant than a health crisis with an impact meaningful in societies, politics, and economies as a whole. 2 , 3 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Healthcare Workers in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Online Survey

Cotrin

Moura

Gambardela-Tkacz

et al. 2020

INQUIRY

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Brazil is in a critical situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Healthcare workers that are in the front line face challenges with a shortage of personal protective equipment, high risk of contamination, low adherence to the social distancing measures by the population, low coronavirus testing with underestimation of cases, and also financial concerns due to the economic crisis in a developing country. This study compared the impact of COVID-19 pandemic among three categories of healthcare workers in Brazil: physicians, nurses, and dentists, about workload, income, protection, training, feelings, behavior, and level of concern and anxiety. The sample was randomly selected and a Google Forms questionnaire was sent by WhatsApp messenger. The survey comprised questions about jobs, income, workload, PPE, training for COVID-19 patient care, behavior and feelings during the pandemic. The number of jobs reduced for all healthcare workers in Brazil during the pandemic, but significantly more for dentists. The workload and income reduced to all healthcare workers. Most healthcare workers did not receive proper training for treating COVID-19 infected patients. Physicians and nurses were feeling more tired than usual. Most of the healthcare workers in all groups reported difficulties in sleeping during the pandemic. The healthcare workers reported a significant impact of COVID-19 pandemic in their income, workload and anxiety, with differences among physicians, nurses and dentists.

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“…However, these interventions make this pandemic a problem more significant than a health crisis with an impact meaningful in societies, politics, and economies as a whole. 2 , 3 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Healthcare Workers in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Online Survey

Cotrin

Moura

Gambardela-Tkacz

et al. 2020

INQUIRY

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly worldwide, causing high morbidity and heavy economic burden (Docherty et al, 2020;Karagiannidis et al, 2020;Onder et al, 2020;Tadesse et al, 2020;Tang et al, 2020;Wu and McGoogan, 2020;Loomba et al, 2021). In December 2019, a pneumonia of unknown cause was detected and became an epidemic in Wuhan, China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence and Associated Factors for Depressive Symptomatology in Chinese Adults During COVID-19 Epidemic

Peng

Lai

et al. 2020

Front. Psychol.

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Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly transmitted worldwide, which contributed to various psychological problems (such as fear, depression, and anxiety) among the general population in China. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of depressive symptoms among Chinese adults.Methods: A cross-sectional study of Chinese adults was conducted during 17–29 February 2020. Symptoms of depression were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D).Results: A total of 3,399 respondents were included in the analysis. It was observed that 14.2% (481/3,399) of the participants were screened positive for depressive symptoms. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, older age (OR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97–0.99), smoking (OR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10–2.26), self-rated health (good: OR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.37–0.66; fairly: OR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45–0.80), having greater support scores (OR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94–0.96), knowledge about the main symptom of COVID-19 (very clearly: OR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42–0.79; relatively clearly: OR = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44–0.79), and staying in Wuhan within 3 months before the outbreak of epidemic (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.34–2.38) were associated with depressive symptoms.Conclusion: A considerable proportion of the general population in China had depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 epidemic. Routine screening and targeted interventions for depression are needed among high-risk depressed individuals during the COVID-19 epidemic.

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“…When the analyses were first done in March 2020, we set the end point of our prediction to the end of June 2020 because our math modelling predicted that COVID-19 cases will drop to very low level by that time. Since then, we have also used the same approach to analyze COVID-19 trend in other countries [ 3 ] including those reported in the current report.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…And more significantly, there is no sign that the pandemic is slowing down. COVID-19 continues to spread to more developing countries and geographic areas such as Brazil [ 3–5 ], India [ 6–10 ] and South Africa [ 11–14 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report

Tang

Wang

2020

Emerging Microbes & Infections

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We previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and its selected states to identify the rise, peak, and decrease of cases within a given geographic population, as well as a rough calculation of accumulated total cases in this population from the beginning to the end of June 2020. The current report will describe how well the later actual trend from March to June fit our model and prediction. Similar analyses are also conducted to include countries other than the US. From such a wide global data analysis, our results demonstrated that different US states and countries showed dramatically different patterns of pandemic trend. The values and limitations of our modelling are discussed.

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Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Brazil: using a mathematical model to estimate the outbreak peak and temporal evolution

Cited by 27 publications

References 4 publications

Healthcare Workers in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Online Survey

Healthcare Workers in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Online Survey

Prevalence and Associated Factors for Depressive Symptomatology in Chinese Adults During COVID-19 Epidemic

The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report

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