Epidemiology of gout – Global burden of disease research from 1990 to 2019 and future trend predictions

Abstract

Background: Understanding the global burden of gout in the past and future can provide important references for optimizing prevention and control strategies in healthcare systems. Objectives: This study aimed to report variations in the global disease burden and risk factors of gout in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Design: We conducted a retrospective analysis of gout based on the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. Methods: We collected data on the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of gout from 1990 to 2019. The data were then stratified by age, sex, and economic development level. Decomposition analysis, frontier analysis, and prediction models were used to analyze the changes and influencing factors influencing each indicator. Results: Globally, there were 53,871,846.4 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 43,383,204.6–66,342,327.3] prevalent cases, 92,228,86.8 (95% UI: 7419,132.1–11,521,165) incident cases, and 1673,973.4 (95% UI: 1,068,061.1–2,393,469.2) cases of DALYs of gout in 2019, more than double those in 1990. Moreover, the pace of increase in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) accelerated during 1990–2019, with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85–1.03], 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.84), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84–1.02), respectively, especially among men. The disease burden of gout has increased in all the other 20 GBD regions in the past 30 years, except Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The highest risk of high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction was in high-income countries such as North America and East Asia. The global prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALYs rate of gout in 2030 will reach 599.86, 102.96 per 100,000 population, and 20.26 per 100,000 population, respectively, roughly the same as in 2019. Conclusion: With the development of society, the disease burden of gout will become increasingly severe. It is very important to study the accurate epidemiological data on gout for clinical diagnosis and treatment and health policy.