15The skin is the largest human organ, functioning to serve as the protective barrier to the harsh, outside world. 16 Recent studies have revealed that large numbers of somatic mutations accumulate, which can be used to infer 17 normal human skin cell dynamics 1-6 . Here we present the first realistic mechanistic epidermal model, that uses 18 the 'Gattaca' method to incorporate cell-genomes, that shows homeostasis imposes a characteristic log-linear 19 subclone size distribution for both neutral and driver mutations, where the largest skin subclones are the oldest 20 subclones. Because homeostasis inherently limits proliferation and therefore clonal sweeps, selection for driver 21 mutations (NOTCH1 and TP53) in normal epidermis is instead conferred by greater persistence, which leads 22 to larger subclone sizes. These results reveal how driver mutations may persist and expand in normal epidermis 23 while highlighting how the integration of mechanistic modeling with genomic data provides novel insights into 24 evolutionary cell dynamics of normal human homeostatic tissues. 25 Recent studies have documented that substantial numbers of mutations accumulate in normal human tissues, with 26 evidence for selection of canonical, oncogenic driver mutations 2-7 . Typically, selection for these driver mutations is 27 modeled by increased cell proliferation; however, requirements of skin homeostasis imposes spatial constraints that 28 inherently limit selective sweeps. Because these mutations do not appear to disrupt homeostasis, these mutations can 29 also provide important new information on normal human tissue dynamics, which are typically studied with 30 experimental fate markers in animal systems. 31 Although substantial numbers of mutations accumulate with age, and a quarter of all cells carry driver mutations 2 , 32 skin thickness and mitotic activity do not significantly change. A controversy currently exists between our 33 understanding of mutation selection and neutral evolution within tissues 1,2,8,9 , in part because our understanding of 34 how a mutant clone is able to expand within normal tissue is completely lacking. Furthermore, most mutations are 35 passengers and skin subclone size/frequency distributions are consistent with neutral evolution or the absence of 36 detectable selection. There is strong evidence of selection by driver mutations (NOTCH and TP53) manifested by 37 dN/dS ratios and their generally larger subclone sizes in normal skin 2 . Varying exposures to sunlight between 38 2 individuals also complicates our understanding of mutation accumulation. The challenge is to develop a model that 38 integrates selection, neutral evolution, and sunlight. The reward would be a realistic model of lifelong human skin cell 39 dynamics. 40 In the scope of the epidermis, first principles dictate a constant cell number through equal loss and replacement of 41 cells, a constant tissue height, and constant stem cell numbers. Using these principles, we built a three-dimensional 42 mechanistic model of the ...