Epistemic participation: How to produce knowledge about the economic future

Abstract

This article explores economic forecasting by examining the various social settings and networks economic forecasters are embedded in. It discusses how forecasters meet with political and economic actors and also how members of forecasting teams embody main aggregates of the economy to commonly produce a consensus about the economic future. The data underlying this article were collected from three economic forecasting institutes in German-speaking countries and consist of interviews with economic forecasters and representative users of the forecasts in economic and political organizations. The article argues that on the backstage of economic forecasting, macroeconomic models are subordinate. Rather, the production process of economic forecasts is embedded in various formal and informal networks. The article summarizes the activities on the backstage of economic forecasting by using the notion of 'epistemic participation'. This means that the forecasters give their object of inquiry, which is the economy, the opportunity to participate actively in the epistemic process. Epistemic participation has two dimensions: First, it takes place in a network including the forecasters and key individuals from the economy and economic policy. Second, forecasters identify with significant parts of the economy and give them a body and a voice. Epistemic participation conceptualizes the relationship between researchers and a highly reflexive and communicative object.

Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts

“…Based on the collected information he emphasizes the impact of political developments on the theoretical orientation of forecasters and their related policy advice. Reichmann (2013) has interviewed forecasters in three Austrian research institutes as well as representative users of the forecasts in economic and political organizations. He concludes that macroeconomic models are rather unimportant for the emergence of a consensus among forecasters.…”

Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century

“…The forecasters do not just interview, survey, or observe the others in the network; they want them to actively co-produce the forecasts. In this sense, forecasters give them the opportunity to participate in the epistemic process of forecasting -this is why I call it "epistemic participation" (Reichmann 2013).…”

“…This chapter argues that there are two epistemic resources helping economic forecasters bridge the gap between present and future. First, drawing on the notion of "epistemic participation" (Reichmann 2013), I argue that interaction between economic actors, economists, and policymakers compensates for the radical uncertainty of the future. And second, I introduce emotion as another epistemic resource.…”

Microeconomic forecasting: Constructing commensurable futures of educational reforms

“…For the period after the Second World War, they traced the shift from predicting trends to the development of mathematical models with which the future consequences of present-day changes in the economy -policydriven or otherwise -could be calculated. These macroeconomic models came to occupy a central position in newly established forecasting bureaus and became engrained in economic policymaking in range of countries and firms (Evans, 1997(Evans, , 2007Reichmann, 2013;Van den Bogaard, 1999b). In their respective accounts of macroeconomic forecasting, these scholars converged on the idea that forecasts never directly follow from the economist's model.…”