Epistemic (un)certainty in times of crisis: The role of coherence as a social convention in the European Neighbourhood Policy after the Arab Spring

Abstract

Academic wisdom assumes that crises precipitate institutional and policy changes in domestic and international politics. However, the relation between crises and policy outcomes is under-theorised. This article conceptualises epistemic coherence as a factor that links crises and their consequences through policy continuity. Crises expose contradictions and inconsistencies, which create uncertainty. Therefore, actors seek to recover the epistemic certainty provided by coherence, which tacitly informs, structures and simplifies actors’ interpretation of reality, even during crisis. For this reason, the role of coherence in policy ideas and institutional rules remains essential to understanding policy continuity. This article illustrates the role of coherence in the policy continuity of the European Neighbourhood Policy in the context of the Arab Spring and the changes in the institutional architecture of European Union foreign policy during 2010–2011.

Change and Continuity in the European Neighbourhood Policy: The Ukraine Crisis as a Critical Juncture

“…Historical institutionalism proved to be particularly useful to study this area of EU external action as it offers a rich toolbox for studying both incremental and episodic change in a dense institutional context. Rather than zooming in on the institutional impediments to effective change, and rather than perceiving them as carriers of continuity as did others successfully 128 , this article embedded these institutional constraints into an analysis that also combines temporal contingency, making them part of the explanation of the variety in change outcomes we did observe. This approach and the focus on both the institutional 'effects' and plasticity of the ENP institutions and temporal contingency may pave the way for future analyses of how EU foreign policy may change as a result of crises and challenges in other policy areas.…”

Framing and reframing the EU’s engagement with the Mediterranean: Examining the security-stability nexus before and after the Arab uprisings

“…As discussed in the next section, security and stability might mean significantly different things in different sectors at different times. On the other hand, interest-based explanations tend to downplay the degree of uncertainty generated by the uprisings within the EU and its member states, and the possibilities for transformative policy change that came with it (for exceptions, see Natorski, 2016;Pace, 2014).…”

What Type of Power has the EU Exercised in the Ukraine–Russia Crisis? A Framework of Analysis

“…Moreover, as far as scope – the issue at stake – is concerned, EU actors may be strongly drawn to policy continuity instead of innovation (Natorski, ). As Natorksi argues, ‘Epistemic uncertainty is a human condition driving the constant desire for its reduction by contingent processes of sense‐making through discourses and categorisations’ (Natorski, , p. 4). Thus, actors seek coherence and that often comes from policy continuity , rather than change, as this relies on previously held knowledge and a sense of certainty.…”

“…Moreover, as far as scopethe issue at stakeis concerned, EU actors may be strongly drawn to policy continuity instead of innovation (Natorski, 2015). As Natorksi argues, 'Epistemic uncertainty is a human condition driving the constant desire for its reduction by contingent processes of sense-making through discourses and categorisations' (Natorski, 2015, p. 4).…”