Why does God allow evil? One hypothesis is that God desires the existence and activity of free creatures but He was unable to create a world with such creatures and such activity without also allowing evil. If Molinism is true, what probability should be assigned to this hypothesis? Some philosophers claim that a low probability should be assigned because there are an infinite number of possible people and because we have no reason to suppose that such creatures will choose one way rather than another. Arguments like this depend on the principle of indifference. But that principle is rejected by most philosophers of probability. Some philosophers claim that a low probability should be assigned because doing otherwise violates intuitions about freewill. But such arguments can be addressed through strategies commonly employed to defend theories with counterintuitive results across ethics and metaphysics. Suppose Molinism is true. Then what are the odds that no matter who God created or what circumstances He put them in, they would do evil? According to a common claim, the odds are very small. I argue that a lesson from the fine-tuning literature casts doubt on this claim. I then reply to a series of objections. The objections may be addressed by combining further applications of the lesson with assumptions available to the Molinist about probability, freewill, observational bias, error theory, explanation, and paraphrase. This is relevant to theodicy. If God were unable to create a world with free creatures but no evil, it would form part of the explanation of why God allows evil. 2. The Lesson The universe appears to be fine-tuned for life. Take, for example, the gravitational constant. Our best physics tells us that the APQ 57_3 text.indd 299 4/16/20 1:45 PM