Epizootic dynamics of yellow fever in forest fragments: An agent-based model to explore the influence of vector and host parameters

Medeiros‐Sousa, Antônio Ralph; Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Mucci, Luís Filipe; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109884

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Local and global sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of different sets of input parameter values on the outputs. The simulation results suggest that mosquito density is one of the main factors responsible for YFV amplification during epizootics and reinforce the hypothesis that the severity of an outbreak and persistence of the virus in the environment depend on complex interaction between different factors associated with vectors, hosts, and the environment (Medeiros- Sousa et al 2022).…”

Section: Yellow Feversupporting

confidence: 73%

“…Due to the high number of human cases and deaths and the high mortality in non-human primates (NHP) during the recent outbreaks of YF in Brazil, a theoretical agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of YFV transmission in a hypothetical forest fragment during epizootic waves, was developed (Medeiros- Sousa et al 2022), as part of the recent BIOTA/FAPESP project "Study of potential vectors and ecological factors associated with the emergence and circulation of yellow fever in Brazil" (2018/25437-6), coordinated by Mauro Toledo Marrelli (FSP/USP).…”

Section: Yellow Fevermentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biodiversity and public health interface

2022

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Alongside modernity, the human activity has been a key factor in global environmental risks, with worldwide anthropic modification being the cause of the emergence of diseases for wild and livestock animals, and even humans. In special, the increase in the spatial distribution and in the incidence of some emerging infectious diseases (EID) are directly associated to deforestation and global climate changes. Moreover, the arise of new EID agents, such as the SARS-COV-2 have been reported for the last 30 years. On the other hand, biodiversity has been shown to be a key indicator for ecosystem health, and to pose a role to increase the promotion of human public health. In neotropical regions, and in special, in Brazil, several infectious diseases have been demonstrated to be directly affected for the biodiversity loss, such as malaria, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, yellow fever, urban arboviruses, spotted fever, amongst other. To better understand the ecosystem capacity of regulation of infectious diseases, FAPESP BIOTA program have supported researchers and research projects to increase knowledge about Brazilian biodiversity and the ecosystems, such as diversity of bird bioagents, venomous animals biodiversity, diversity of mosquitos species in forest patches inside urban areas, propagation of the yellow fever virus over fragmented forest territories, loss of ecological corridors and occurrence of spotted fever and malaria, amongst others. It is noteworthy that FAPESP BIOTA is a successful program and must be expanded as an important tool for present and future public health promotion.

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Section: Yellow Feversupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: Yellow Fevermentioning

confidence: 99%

Biodiversity and public health interface

2022

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“…Among the parameters tested, the total Sobol index was slightly higher for mosquito abundance compared to other parameters. Likewise, simulations conducted by Medeiros-Sousa et al (2022) indicated that mosquito abundance is also an important parameter for influencing infection prevalence in mosquitoes, primate mortality, and YFV persistence within a fragment, especially when interacting with other key parameters. For YFV, previous studies have shown that periods of climatic anomalies that cause changes in rainfall and temperature increase the likelihood of large YF epizootics and epidemic waves when mosquito numbers exceed normal levels (Vasconcelos et al, 2001; Vasconcelos, 2010; Zhao et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For both H. janthinomys and H. leucocelaenus , the proportions of infected individuals in the population have shown considerable variation across the various field studies, with minimum infection rates ranging from 1% to over 15% of the sampled population. This variability may reflect the abundance of infected amplifying hosts and vector mosquitoes in the area (Abreu et al, 2019a; Pinheiro et al, 2019; Medeiros-Sousa et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The overall purpose of the model is to represent the transmission dynamics and propagation of the yellow fever virus (YFV) across fragmented landscapes. The within- fragment dynamics is based on the local agent-based model for YFV transmission developed by Medeiros-Sousa et al (2022), which for run-time reasons was aggregated into a compartment model. Specifically, we are addressing the following questions: Do highly fragmented landscapes facilitate the spread of YFV during epizootic waves?…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the transmission and spread of yellow fever in forest landscapes with different spatial configurations

Medeiros-Sousa,

Lange,

Mucci

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Yellow fever (YF) is a major public health issue in tropical and subtropical areas of Africa and South America. The disease is caused by the yellow fever virus (YFV), an RNA virus transmitted to humans and other animals through the bite of infected mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). In Brazil and other South American countries, YFV is restricted to the sylvatic cycle, with periodic epizootic outbreaks affecting non-human primate (NHP) populations and preceding the emergence of human infections in areas close to forests. In recent epizootic-epidemic waves, the virus has expanded its range and spread across highly fragmented landscapes of the Brazilian Atlantic coast. Empirical evidence has suggested a possible relationship between highly fragmented areas, increased risk of disease in NHP and humans, and easier permeability of YFV through the landscape. Here, we present a hybrid compartmental and network-based model to simulate the transmission and spread of YFV in forest landscapes with different spatial configurations (forest cover and edge densities) and apply the model to test the hypothesis of faster virus percolation in highly fragmented landscapes. The model was parameterized and tested using the pattern- oriented modelling approach. Two different scenarios were simulated to test variations in model outputs, a first where the landscape has no influence on model parameters (default) and a second based on the hypothesis that edge density influences mosquito and dead-end host abundance and dispersal (landscape-dependent). The model was able to reproduce empirical patterns such as the percolation speed of the virus, which presented averages close to 1 km/day, and provided insights into the short persistence time of the virus in the landscape, which was approximately three months on average. When assessing the speed of virus percolation across landscapes, it was found that in the default scenario virus percolation tended to be faster in landscapes with greater forest cover and lower edge density, which contradicts empirical observations. Conversely, in the landscape- dependent scenario, virus percolation was faster in landscapes with high edge density and intermediate forest cover, supporting empirical observations that highly fragmented landscapes favour YFV spread. The proposed model can contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of YFV spread in forested areas, with the potential to be used as an additional tool to support prevention and control measures. The potential applications of the model for YFV and other mosquito-borne diseases are discussed.

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