Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities

Spandagos, Constantine; Ng, Tze Ling

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.039

Cited by 86 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on urban systems and built infrastructure (Chapman, Howden-Chapman, & Capon, 2016;Hunt & Watkiss, 2011;Rosenzweig, Solecki, Hammer, & Mehrotra, 2011), such as energy systems (Spandagos & Ng, 2017), water supply and wastewater treatment (Howard, Calow, Macdonald, & Bartram, 2016;Wang et al, 2016), transportation systems (Dulal, Brodnig, & Onoriose, 2011;Kwan & Hashim, 2016;Peterson, McGuirk, Houston, Horvitz, & Wehner, 2008), public health and human comfort (Araos, Austin, Berrang-Ford, & Ford, 2016;Batista et al, 2016;Li et al, 2015;Molenaar, Heusinkveld, & Steeneveld, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

Šmíd

Costa

2017

International Journal of Urban Sciences

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Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change but also the impact hotspots. In the context of the planet currently undergoing a process of greenhouse warming, and simultaneously predominantly urban based ever continuing population growth, our agglomerations became vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and cost-effective assessment of future impact is of high importance. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localized information on future climate extreme behaviours, these methods do not remain widely exploited in the process of urban planning. In this work, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures in the real process of urban planning. This paper attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatology. In the beginning, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the scale represents an important linkage between urbanistic and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

Šmíd

Costa

2017

International Journal of Urban Sciences

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“…Decreasing energy consumption by climate change reduces the number of annual full load hours [42]. This is a result of lower energy consumption in general and therefore applicable for decreasing energy consumption due to thermal insulation as well.…”

Section: Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors influencing the environmental and economic feasibility of district heating systems—a perspective from integrated spatial and energy planning

2019

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Background: District heating systems have been gaining importance in the last years. However, local circumstances, e.g. regarding heat demand and available heat sources, are diverse and new technologies especially in the low-temperature sector arise. Central aim of this research is to identify the impact of integrated spatial and energy planning on the environmental and economic sustainability of district heating systems, to distinguish between more and less appropriate areas for district heating and to build the basis for a low-barrier decision tool for local authorities regarding the identification of areas suitable for district heating, also showing spatial planning strategies to enhance the opportunities for district heating. Future changes until 2050 are analysed and planning principles derived; therefore, unpredictable parameters such as energy prices and subsidies are not included in this research. Methods: Based on the system analysis according to Vester, a modified method was developed. The following research fields were involved: spatial planning, resource management, environmental planning, and energy and building technology. Results: As main integrated spatial and energy planning aspects relevant for district heating, mix of functions, potential of compacting and extension, density of buildings, inhabitants and employees, building type, thermal insulation potential, and the used heat source(s) were identified. By steering these parameters, the feasibility of district heating systems can be enhanced. Indicators, directly linked to the feasibility of district heating systems are energy consumption density, number of annual full load hours, temperature level, and available heat source(s). Climate change, changes in building density, thermal insulation, and the mix of functions will influence district heating systems regarding environmental and economic aspects. Reduced heat consumption can be a threat to district heating systems, but can be balanced by decreasing inlet temperatures, making waste heat and renewables accessible. Conclusions: As district heating systems are often advantageous to other forms of providing heat due to higher resilience, the economies of scale effect, or the potential of using energy surpluses ('waste heat'), spatial planning policies must seek ways to provide for adequate building density and to enhance the mix of functions in order to ensure the long-term feasibility of district heating systems.

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“…6 suggested that an electricity demand forecast which does not consider climatic non-stationarity may have an inherent bias. Spandagos and Ng 27 applied an equivalent full load hours method to estimate the impact of climate change on building cooling and heating energy consumption in Hong Kong, Seoul, and Tokyo using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results showed that in the RCP 4.5 scenario, heating and cooling in residential households will increase by 18.3%, 4%, and 10.4% in Hong Kong, Seoul, and Tokyo, respectively, by 2044.…”

Section: Literature Review and Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia

Emodi

Chaiechi

Beg

2018

Energy & Environment

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This study estimates the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Australia. We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data from 1999 to 2014 for six Australian states and one territory. The results reveal significant variations in electricity demand. We then used long-term coefficients for climatic response to simulate future electricity demand using four scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our results show a gradual increase in electricity consumption due to warmer temperatures with the possibility of peak demand in winter; however, demand tends to decrease in the middle of the twenty-first century across the RCPs, while the summer peak load increases by the end of the century. Finally, we simulated the impact of policy uncertainty through sensitivity analysis and confirmed the potential benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

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Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities

Cited by 86 publications

References 56 publications

Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

Factors influencing the environmental and economic feasibility of district heating systems—a perspective from integrated spatial and energy planning

The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia

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