ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century

Poli, Paul; Hersbach, Hans; Dee, Dick; Berrisford, Paul; Simmons, A. J.; Vitart, Frédéric; Laloyaux, Patrick; Tan, David; Peubey, Carole; Trémolet, Yannick; Hólm, Elías; Bonavita, Massimo; Isaksen, Lars; Fisher, Michael

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0556.1

Cited by 986 publications

(1,010 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The 2 m T a in NCEP-1, NCEP-2, MERRA, MERRA-2, ERA-20C, ERA-20CM, CERA-20C, NOAA 20CRv2c, NOAA 20CRv2 and CFSR are model-derived fields that are functions of the surface skin temperature, the temperature at the lowest model level, the vertical stability and the surface roughness, which are constrained primarily by observations of upper-air variables and the surface pressure (Kanamitsu et al, 2002;Rienecker et al, 2011;Reichle et al, 2017;Poli et al, 2016;Hersbach et al, 2015;Laloyaux et al, 2016;Compo et al, 2011;Saha et al, 2010). However, the T a in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 are post-processing products by a relatively simple analysis scheme between the lowest model level and the surface and are analysed using ground-based observations of T a , with the help of Monin-Obukhov similarity profiles consistent with the model's parameterization of the surface layer (Dee et al, 2011b;Kobayashi et al, 2015).…”

Section: Reanalysis Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate reanalyses of this new generation extend back to the late nineteenth century and include the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which is produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Saha et al, 2010); NOAA 20CRv2c, which is produced by the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) (Compo et al, 2011); and ERA-20C (Poli et al, 2016), ERA-20CM (Hersbach et al, 2015) and CERA-20C , which are produced by the ECMWF. Compo et al (2013) suggested that the NOAA 20CRv2c reanalysis can reproduce the trend in global mean surface air temperatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Zhou

Wang

2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (T a ) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in T a are examined using homogenized measurements of T a made at ∼ 2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that ∼ 80 % of the mean differences in T a between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the T a climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in T a . However, the biases in theT a trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 • C decade −1 using 1 • × 1 • grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in T a correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (R s ) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (L d ) among the reanalyses (r = −0.83, 0.80 and 0.77; p < 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in T a over southern China (on the order of −0.07 • C decade −1 ) are caused by biases in the trends in R s , L d and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, −0.08 and −0.06 • C decade −1 , respectively. The biases in the trends in T a over northern China (on the order of −0.12 • C decade −1 ) result jointly from those in L d and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and R s helps to maximize the signal component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of T a observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation = 0.15 • C decade −1 ).

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Section: Reanalysis Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Zhou

Wang

2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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show abstract

“…Secondly, a period in which the multi-proxy reconstructions overlap with the instrumental DJF SOI (1876-1977) was assessed. Analysis using longer twentieth century reanalysis for a logbook-type reconstruction over this period is not carried out due to additional sources of uncertainty when using twentieth century reanalyses which span further back in time and are informed from a smaller number of observations (Ferguson and Villarini 2014;Poli et al 2016;Bett et al 2017). The documentary chronologies have a more limited period of overlap with the instrumental SOI, with ORT00 and GH08 only providing an ENSO chronology up to 1900.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity

2017

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“…Rather, by tendency most of the reanalysis data sets [except for ERA-20C described in Poli et al (2016), CERA-20C described in Laloyaux et al (2016) and 20-CR introduced in Compo et al (2011), which try to achieve climate quality] offer the best analysis quality at any point of time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, this appraisal has put forward the idea of regional reanalyses additionally to the global ones [for global reanalyses see e.g. Kalnay et al, (1996); Onogi et al (2007); Saha et al (2010); Rienecker et al (2011); Dee et al (2011);Compo et al (2011); Kobayashi et al (2015); Poli et al (2016)]. Regional reanalyses make use of limited-area models with high grid resolution and thus 'zoom in' to a certain geographical region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

Bach¹,

Schraff²,

Keller³

et al. 2016

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A B S T R A C TA new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERAInterim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of sixhourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA).

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ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century

Cited by 986 publications

References 26 publications

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

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