Era of uncertain events: Swedish foreign trade in 2010–2023

Abstract

International trade has experienced since Global Financial Crisis (GFC) numerous uncertainties and risks. There are some countries that have successfully navigated in this challenging environment, like Sweden. In this research, we analyze the changes in trade between 2010–2023. For imports, the role of Russia, United Kingdom (UK) and Denmark has declined, while the importance of the Netherlands, Norway, and Poland show increase. For exports, a diminishing role of UK and Russia could be detected, while the role of the USA, Poland, Germany and China has increased. Our interpretation is that these trade changes are due to global geopolitical, i.e. macro-level shifts. Both Brexit (2016 onwards) and Russian invasion of Ukraine (2014 onwards) show long-term trade effects. Prior both UK and Russia held high importance; however, in the recent years, especially exports to USA have played more important role, and it is providing growth and surplus. Despite the export growth to Poland, Germany, and China, the trade to these countries remains to show trade deficit. We also analyze the impact of trade changes on maritime trade. Although, the overall handling at sea ports has declined, but container based trade demonstrates clear growth. Direct container connections to UK and Russia have declined substantially in the observation period as Chinese show significant increase.