2009
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01233.x
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Erroneous behaviour of MixSIR, a recently published Bayesian isotope mixing model: a discussion of Moore & Semmens (2008)

Abstract: The application of Bayesian methods to stable isotopic mixing problems, including inference of diet has the potential to revolutionise ecological research. Using simulated data we show that a recently published model MixSIR fails to correctly identify the true underlying dietary proportions more than 50% of the time and fails with increasing frequency as additional unquantified error is added. While the source of the fundamental failure remains elusive, mitigating solutions are suggested for dealing with addit… Show more

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Cited by 185 publications
(168 citation statements)
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“…Conversely, outputs for obtuse and more variable endmembers were worse. It is also noteworthy that whereas the largest normalized triangular polygon surveyed for this study had a surface area of 43 SD 2 , the polygon used as an example by Jackson et al (2009) when debating the attributes of these types of analyses had a surface area of 693 SD 2 . The fact that this hypothetical polygon was 15 times larger than the largest polygon observed in the meta-analysis conducted for this study could indicate that perceptions of what may constitute 'typical' resource mixing polygons are askew.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Conversely, outputs for obtuse and more variable endmembers were worse. It is also noteworthy that whereas the largest normalized triangular polygon surveyed for this study had a surface area of 43 SD 2 , the polygon used as an example by Jackson et al (2009) when debating the attributes of these types of analyses had a surface area of 693 SD 2 . The fact that this hypothetical polygon was 15 times larger than the largest polygon observed in the meta-analysis conducted for this study could indicate that perceptions of what may constitute 'typical' resource mixing polygons are askew.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…in late pregnancy and early lactation). Bayesian approaches allow incorporating not only isotopic values, elemental concentrations and fractionation factors within the mixing models, but also the uncertainties involved in all these values, thus providing results that are considerably more robust for quantifying feeding preferences than those in previous modelling approaches Moore and Semmens, 2008;Parnell et al, 2008;Jackson et al, 2009). Furthermore, as the resulting later distributions of the proportions of various sources within the diet of a consumer have associated probabilities, we can use the most likely solution as a single metric for a given dietary component in subsequent analyses Moore and Semmens, 2008;Jackson et al, 2009).…”
Section: Data Analysesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To estimate contributions of basal production sources to consumers, we performed mixing analysis with MixSIR version 1.04 with uninformative priors, the model specifies Dirichlet (=1) for priors on all source contributions [52][53][54]. All possible combinations of source contributions are a priori equally likely.…”
Section: Estimation Of Diet Compositionmentioning
confidence: 99%