Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters

Ito, Kosuke

doi:10.2151/sola.2016-049

Cited by 25 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In the Western North Pacific (WNP), strong TCs occur more frequently than any other basin (D'Asaro et al 2011). Previous researches and modeling efforts have improved TC track forecasts, and recent studies have reported improvements in TC intensity forecasts (DeMaria et al 2014;Ito 2016;JMA 2018;Yamaguchi et al 2017). However, track and intensity forecast errors in the WNP are still often too large for effective disaster prevention and mitigation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII

Ito

Yamada

Yamaguchi³

et al. 2018

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21− 22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8−16% for 27−36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the realtime analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII

Ito

Yamada

Yamaguchi³

et al. 2018

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is well known that improvements in forecasts of TC intensity remain a challenge, despite improved forecasting of TC tracks (e.g., Ito, ; Nakano et al, ). Haiyan is one example of the failure of intensity prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Typhoon Haiyan (2013) intensified rapidly and reached a central pressure of 895 hPa over the warm northwestern Pacific. To clarify why Haiyan became such an extraordinarily intense tropical cyclone (TC), we investigated the impacts of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes on Haiyan's intensity. We performed ensemble experiments with many different initial oceanic conditions and a 7‐km‐mesh atmosphere‐wave‐ocean coupled model. We also performed sensitivity experiments to examine the impacts of sea spray and use of a 2‐km‐mesh horizontal resolution. Also, analogous experiments were performed with Typhoon Mike (1990), which followed a similar track but was less intense than Haiyan. For both TCs, ocean coupling helped alleviate uncertainty in the simulated intensities caused by different preexisting oceanic conditions. Increases in air‐sea latent heat fluxes helped increase the intensity of both TCs although the effect of sea spray depended on whitecap coverage. Preexisting oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes directly affected the secondary circulation via changes in latent heat fluxes and near‐surface moisture influxes. However, the 2‐km‐mesh resolution improved only Haiyan's simulation; the mean latent heat flux over the strength area was insufficient to simulate the intensity. It was easterly winds and specific humidity at 850 hPa that determined the small size, rapid translation, less sea surface cooling, and small decreases in latent heat fluxes beneath the frictional convergence area of simulated Haiyan. Understanding of the effect of preexisting oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes on simulated TCs will serve as a guideline for improvement of the atmosphere‐wave‐ocean coupled model.

show abstract

“…The western North Pacific produces more than a quarter of the world's tropical cyclones (TCs), including many extremely intense TCs reaching Categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php) (Murakami et al, ). Nevertheless, intensity forecasts for western North Pacific TCs have not improved in accuracy in more than 26 years, and Ito () found that the forecast errors have been largest for rapidly developing TCs. Most intense TCs develop with high intensification rates before attaining their peak intensity (Kaplan & DeMaria, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Typhoon Megi (2010), a very intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 885 hPa, was characterized by especially rapid intensification. We investigated this intensification process by a simulation experiment using a high‐resolution (0.02° × 0.02°) three‐dimensional atmosphere‐ocean coupled regional model. We also performed a sensitivity experiment with a time‐fixed sea surface temperature (SST). The coupled model successfully simulated the minimum central pressure of Typhoon Megi, whereas the fixed SST experiment simulated an excessively low minimum central pressure of 839 hPa. The simulation results also showed a close relationship between the radial SST profiles and the rapid intensification process. Because the warm sea increased near‐surface water vapor and hence the convective available potential energy, the high SST in the eye region facilitated tall and intense updrafts inside the radius of maximum wind speed and led to the start of rapid intensification. In contrast, high SST outside this radius induced local secondary updrafts that inhibited rapid intensification even if the mean SST in the core region exceeded 29.0°C. These secondary updrafts moved inward and eventually merged with the primary eyewall updrafts. Then the storm intensified rapidly when the high SST appeared in the eye region. Thus, the changes in the local SST pattern around the storm center strongly affected the rapid intensification process by modulating the radial structure of core convection. Our results also show that the use of a high‐resolution three‐dimensional atmosphere‐ocean coupled model offers promise for improving intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones.

show abstract

Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters

Cited by 25 publications

References 17 publications

Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII

Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About