ESA SEPEM project: Peak flux and fluence model

Jiggens,; Gabriel, Joseph M.; Heynderickx,; Crosby, Michael P.; Glover,; Hilgers,

doi:10.1109/radecs.2011.6131436

Cited by 18 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…eu/help/event_ref.html) of SPEs follows the same definition as applied previously (Jiggens et al, 2012), requiring that the differential flux value in the 7.38-10.4 MeV channel is above 0.01 dpfu (dpfu = differential particle flux units = particles. cm À2 ⋅sr À1 ⋅s À1 (MeV/nuc) À1 ), over the period is at least 0.5 dpfu, a dwell time of no more than 24 hours is permitted between consecutive enhancements (else they are treated as a continuation of the same SPE) and events must have a duration of at least 24 hours.…”

Section: Reference Event Listmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

Jiggens

Heynderickx

Sandberg³

et al. 2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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-The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs).

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Section: Reference Event Listmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper focusses on the derivation of the solar proton element of SAPPHIRE which can be seen as a significant update of earlier work (Jiggens et al, 2012). The paper is structured in 5 further chapters: -model underlying data and treatment (Sect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

Jiggens

Heynderickx

Sandberg³

et al. 2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…The SEPEM worst-case event (Jiggens et al 2012) might be an appropriate estimation of a true worst-case but this assumes that the sample of the past 40 years of data are representative of the total population including reasonable sampling of the upper end of the SPE fluence distribution. For these reasons a worst-case ·2 event has been included as an estimate of a Carrington-sized event.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SPE spectra were estimated using models presented by Jiggens et al (2012) and implemented in the SEPEM framework. A spectrum was produced corresponding to a 95% confidence level (95% confidence of not being exceeded by any SPE at any energy) for a 9-month mission at solar maximum along with a more extreme event using a 99% confidence level.…”

Section: The Carrington Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The existence and value of such a limit is highly contentious due to the lack of data for very large fluence SPEs; other distributions applied to SPE fluences do not define such a limit. A method for calculating a ''worst-case'' event fluence for a given mission length and confidence level was also reported by Jiggens et al (2012) following the Virtual Timelines methodology combining a Lévy distribution fit to the event waiting times (see Jiggens & Gabriel 2009) and a power law with exponential cut-off fit to the SPE fluences first applied by Nymmik (2007). Here, no absolute worst-case is predicted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

Jiggens

Chavy-Macdonald

Santin

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE) on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm À2 ) as a function of particle energy (in MeV). This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads), non-ionising energy loss (MeV g À1 ), single event upsets (upsets/bit) and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing) effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness) in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

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SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

et al. 2015

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Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agency's Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.Charged particle radiation is one of the main issues currently being discussed in regard to sending humans on long-term interplanetary missions (e.g., return trip to Mars) [Cucinotta et al., 2010]. It is well known that the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux in the solar system is modulated by solar activity, and as a first approximation, the GCR background intensity can be said to be slowly varying and therefore predictable over short CROSBY ET AL.STATISTICAL MODELING: SEP ENVIRONMENT 406 PUBLICATIONS Space Weather

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ESA SEPEM project: Peak flux and fluence model

Cited by 18 publications

References 25 publications

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

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