Background
Trends in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) are important for health-care policy and planning.
Objective
To update trends in CKD prevalence.
Design
Repeated cross-sectional study.
Setting
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1988–94 and every two years from 1999 to 2012.
Participants
Adults 20 years or older.
Measurements
CKD (stages 3–4) was defined using glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated with the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation from calibrated serum creatinine measurements (eGFR 15–59 ml/min/1.73m2). An expanded definition of CKD also included persons with an eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73m2 and a one-time urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g.
Results
An increase in the unadjusted prevalence of stages 3–4 CKD occurred from the late 1990s to the early 2000’s. Since 2003–04, however, the prevalence of stages 3–4 CKD overall has largely stabilized (e.g. 6.9% prevalence of stage 3–4 CKD in 2003–04 and 6.9% prevalence in 2011–12). There was little difference in adjusted prevalence of stage 3–4 CKD overall comparing 2003–04 and 2011–12 after controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and diabetes mellitus status (p=0.26). Lack of increase in CKD prevalence since the early 2000’s was observed in most subgroups and with an expanded definition of CKD which included persons with higher eGFRs but with albuminuria.
Limitations
Serum creatinine and albuminuria were measured only once in each subject.
Conclusions
In a reversal of prior trends, there has been no appreciable increase in the prevalence of stages 3–4 CKD in the U.S. population overall during the most recent decade.