Establishing the extent and pace of the contemporary trend of migration decline in Europe

Rowe, Francisco

doi:10.1080/13673882.2018.00001008

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Compared with other parts of the world, the overall intensity of migration is moderate, but variable across countries (Rowe 2018b). Multiple studies have found evidence of a spatial gradient of high mobility in Northern and Western Europe to low mobility in Southern and Eastern Europe (Bell et al 2015b;Rees/Kupiszewski 1999;Rowe 2018a;Sánchez/Andrews 2011). The impact of migration on settlement systems also varies across the continent and over time, but with less clarity in spatial patterning.…”

Section: Prior Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 20th century has seen considerable progress in data collection practice and methods of analysis, and a rich comparative literature has progressively developed in Europe focussing on the intensity, composition, patterning and spatial impacts of population movement (Champion 1989;Fielding 1989;Rees/Kupiszewski 1999;Rogers/Castro 1983;Rowe 2018a). Despite these contributions, contemporary understanding of the way migration impacts on settlement patterns remains crude, constrained primarily by reliance on coarse dichotomies into urban and rural, data inadequacies and the perennial obstacles presented by the modifi able areal unit problem (MAUP) (Openshaw 1975).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution in Europe: Urbanisation, Counterurbanisation or Spatial Equilibrium?

Rowe

Bell

Bernard

et al. 2019

CPoS

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The classical foundations of migration research date from the 1880s with Ravenstein’s “Laws of migration”, which represent the first comparative analyses of internal migration. While his observations remain largely valid, the ensuing century has seen considerable progress in data collection practices and methods of analysis, which in turn has permitted theoretical advances in understanding the role of migration in population redistribution. Coupling the extensive range of migration data now available with these recent theoretical and methodological advances, we endeavour to advance beyond Ravenstein’s understanding by examining the direction of population redistribution and comparing the impact of internal migration on patterns of human settlement in 27 European countries. Results show that the overall redistributive impact of internal migration is low in most European countries but the mechanisms differ across the continent. In Southern and Eastern Europe migration effectiveness is above average but is offset by low migration intensities, whereas in Northern and Western Europe high intensities are absorbed in reciprocal flows resulting in low migration effectiveness. About half the European countries are experiencing a process of concentration toward urbanised regions, particularly in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe, whereas countries in the West and South are undergoing a process of population deconcentration. These results suggest that population deconcentration is now more common than it was in the 1990s when counterurbanisation was limited to Western Europe. The results show that 130 years on, Ravenstein’s law of migration streams and counter-streams remains a central facet of migration dynamics, while underlining the importance of simple yet robust indices for the spatial analysis of migration.* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.

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Section: Prior Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution in Europe: Urbanisation, Counterurbanisation or Spatial Equilibrium?

Rowe

Bell

Bernard

et al. 2019

CPoS

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“…Even when considering the expected recuperation of European fertility following the end of the postponement transition, recent population projections display declines for total European population by the end of the century (UN 2017). Depopulation therefore appears imminent for Europe, bringing with it a whole host of economic and social challenges, namely a decline in economic productivity and therefore growth (Bloom and Sousa-Poza 2010;Coleman and Rowthorn 2011), in addition to issues relating to welfare and healthcare provision as a direct consequence of the inseparable population ageing phenomenon Bloom 2011) and changing trends of internal migration rates (Rowe 2018).…”

Section: Demographic Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany

Newsham

Rowe

2019

J Geogr Syst

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Trends of persistent low fertility and increasing life expectancy have set Germany to undergo rapid population ageing and decline. In the context of the Syrian refugee crisis, immigration has been considered as a key mechanism to combat these demographic outlooks. This study assesses the demographic impact of Syrian migration into Germany. Deterministic and Bayesian probabilistic projection methods are used to determine the contribution of Syrian migrants to aggregate total fertility rate and the likelihood of subsequent population growth. Findings reveal that Syrian migration is projected to increase German period total fertility but not by the required levels to prevent depopulation. Whilst Syrian migration into Germany has been substantial over the past few years, fertile female cohorts are largely underrepresented in the migrant population and so only a moderate net-effect of Syrian migrants on German fertility is forecasted. A solution to Germany' population decline may thus not be offered through Syrian migration, with depopulation projected to be a likely scenario.

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“…The ACMI varies widely across Europe (Rowe, 2018). It ranges from just over 1% per annum in Macedonia to over 18% in France and Iceland, with levels close to the global mean in Hungary and Austria.…”

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confidence: 99%

Internal Migration Intensity and Impact in Europe

Rowe¹

2020

Preprint

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Globally, internal migrants outnumber international migrants by 4 to 1 (Bell et al 2015) and recent years have seen significant progress in understanding internal migration in a comparative framework. The IMAGE project (Internal Migration Around the GlobE) developed a rigorous framework for cross-national comparisons of internal migration, involving (1) a suite of statistical indicators, (2) methods to generate estimates where comparable metrics are not collected directly, and (3) a global repository of internal migration data. The Aggregate Crude Migration Intensity (ACMI) captures the intensity of internal migration measuring all changes of address in a given interval. The Migration Effectiveness Index (MEI), which ranges from 0 to 100, quantifies the degree of balance between flows and counterflows, with low values indicating largely reciprocal exchanges between regions, while high values suggest strongly directional flows. Together, intensity and effectiveness drive the redistributive impact of migration on national populations.

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Establishing the extent and pace of the contemporary trend of migration decline in Europe

Abstract: Francisco Rowe analyses trends in internal migration patterns across 27 European countries, revealing an as yet unappreciated variety of migration levels across European regions that poses a significant challenges to regional policymaking. :Introduction:

Cited by 8 publications

References 4 publications

Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution in Europe: Urbanisation, Counterurbanisation or Spatial Equilibrium?

Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution in Europe: Urbanisation, Counterurbanisation or Spatial Equilibrium?

Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany

Internal Migration Intensity and Impact in Europe

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