Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat

Wu, Yanshen; Guo, Hao; Zhang, Anyu; Wang, Jing’ai

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 69 publications

(85 reference statements)

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“…where YL is the yield loss rate of the evaluation unit, DH I is the drought hazard intensity index of the evaluation unit and a, b, c is the parameter to be fitted. Three characteristic parameters were calculated to characterize the phase change based on the vulnerability curve function [56], where these key points were calculated by deriving Equation ( 9) such that both the second and third order derivatives were zero. Table 1 lists the key point covariates of the vulnerability curves.…”

Section: Gridded Drought Vulnerability Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter Wheat Drought Risk Assessment by Coupling Improved Moisture-Sensitive Crop Model and Gridded Vulnerability Curve

Yang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The crop drought risk assessment is an important basis for mitigating the effects of drought on crops. The study of drought using crop growth models is an integral part of agricultural drought risk research. The current Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model is not sufficiently sensitive to moisture parameters when performing simulations, and most studies that conduct different scenario simulations to assess crop drought vulnerability are based on the site-scale. In this paper, we improved the moisture sensitivity of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis System (CERES)-Wheat to improve the simulation accuracy of winter wheat under water stress, and then we assessed the drought intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and constructed a gridded vulnerability curve. The grid vulnerability curves (1 km × 1 km) were quantitatively characterized using key points, and the drought risk distribution and zoning of winter wheat were evaluated under different return periods. The results show that the stress mechanism of coupled water and photosynthetic behavior improved the CERES-Wheat model. The accuracy of the modified model improved in terms of the above-ground biomass and yield compared with that before the modification, with increases of 20.39% and 11.45% in accuracy, respectively. The drought hazard intensity index of winter wheat in the study area from 1970 to 2019 exhibited a trend of high in the southwest and low in the southeast. The range of the multi-year average drought hazard intensity across the region was 0.29–0.61. There were some differences in the shape and characteristic covariates of the drought vulnerability curves among the different sub-zones. In terms of the cumulative loss rates, almost the entire region had a cumulative drought loss rate of 49.00–54.00%. Overall, the drought risk index decreased from west to east and from north to south under different return periods. This quantitative evaluation of the drought hazard intensity index provides a reference for agricultural drought risk evaluation.

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Section: Gridded Drought Vulnerability Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter Wheat Drought Risk Assessment by Coupling Improved Moisture-Sensitive Crop Model and Gridded Vulnerability Curve

Yang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…Other crop models that do account for irrigation -for example, DSSAT (Jones et al, 2003), APSIM (Keating et al, 2003) and EPIC (Williams et al, 1989) cannot be applied in this region because precise information on irrigation scheduling is lacking, and much of the irrigation is natural, rather than artificially applied. Furthermore, although empirical vulnerability functions, based on meteorological metrics of drought have been successfully applied in other regions (for example, Yue et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2021), the difficulty of relating agricultural drought stress to meteorological variability precludes this approach in Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan

Black,

Maidment,

Rees

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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Drought poses a continual threat to both lives and livelihoods in the Global South. Although the impact on food security from drought could be reduced through early release of funds, the humanitarian sector typically reacts to crises rather than anticipates them. A significant challenge lies in devising a drought monitoring and forecasting system that can function across environmentally and economically diverse regions. This is particularly evident in Pakistan, which encompasses environments ranging from fertile riverbeds to arid deserts. This paper details the development, implementation, and operation of an anticipatory drought Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) programme for the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan in Pakistan. Key to the DRF development are a new yield model for the primary crop in the target season (winter wheat), and a novel forecasting system for four seasonal drought indicators - namely winter wheat yield, precipitation, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation health index (VHI). Formal evaluations demonstrate that the forecasts are skillful up to 2 months in advance of the end of the season – enabling anticipatory release of funds. The work presented here is applicable beyond Pakistan. Indeed, the model and the methodologies are sufficiently broad and adaptable to be utilised in arid and semi-arid regions across the Global South.

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Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves

et al. 2022

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Weather extremes have been responsible for widespread economic damage at global scale in the last decades. Agriculture alone absorbed 26% of the overall impact caused by natural hazards in low- and middle-income countries and even in high-income countries yield losses due to extreme weather are relevant. Vulnerability curves are traditionally used to quickly estimate the damage due to extreme events. This study maps the articles published from January 2000 to May 2022 implementing crop vulnerability curves to weather-related extreme events and climate change. Fifty-two articles have been identified through the use of Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and the references of the selected papers. The selected papers have been analysed to determine for which extreme events vulnerability curves have been proposed, which crops have been studied, which explanatory variables have been used to create the curves, which functions are used to develop vulnerability curves and the number of parameters on which the proposed functions rely. Comparisons among the vulnerability curves for the various extremes are proposed, as well as indications of the main drawback of the developed vulnerability curves. Finally, areas where further research is needed are proposed together with recommendations on which elements should be included in vulnerability curve development.

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Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat

Cited by 5 publications

References 69 publications

Winter Wheat Drought Risk Assessment by Coupling Improved Moisture-Sensitive Crop Model and Gridded Vulnerability Curve

Winter Wheat Drought Risk Assessment by Coupling Improved Moisture-Sensitive Crop Model and Gridded Vulnerability Curve

A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan

Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves

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