Establishment and validation of a nomogram for dropout intention in Chinese early year medical undergraduates

Abstract

Background The attrition rate of Chinese medical students is high. This study utilizes a nomogram technique to develop a predictive model for dropout intention among Chinese medical undergraduates based on 19 individual and work-related characteristics. Method A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling 3536 medical undergraduates in T1 (August 2020-April 2021) and 969 participants in T2 (October 2022) through snowball sampling. Demographics (age, sex, study phase, income, relationship status, history of mental illness) and mental health factors (including depression, anxiety, stress, burnout, alcohol use disorder, sleepiness, quality of life, fatigue, history of suicidal attempts (SA), and somatic symptoms), as well as work-related variables (career choice regret and reasons, workplace violence experience, and overall satisfaction with the Chinese healthcare environment), were gathered via questionnaires. Data from T1 was split into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort, while T2 data served as an external validation cohort. The nomogram’s performance was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, clinical applicability, and generalization using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Result From 19 individual and work-related factors, five were identified as significant predictors for the construction of the nomogram: history of SA, career choice regret, experience of workplace violence, depressive symptoms, and burnout. The AUC values for the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.762, 0.761, and 0.817, respectively. The nomogram demonstrated reliable prediction and discrimination, with adequate calibration and generalization across both the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion This nomogram exhibits reasonable accuracy in foreseeing dropout intentions among Chinese medical undergraduates. It could guide colleges, hospitals, and policymakers in pinpointing students at risk, thus informing targeted interventions. Addressing underlying factors such as depressive symptoms, burnout, career choice regret, and workplace violence may help reduce the attrition of medical undergraduates. Trial registration This is an observational study. There is no Clinical Trial Number associated with this manuscript.