Estimate global risks of a forest disease under current and future climates using species distribution model and simple thermal model – Pine Wilt disease as a model case

Ikegami, Makihiko; Jenkins, T. A. R.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.11.005

Cited by 93 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The incidence of pine wilt disease, a highly destructive forest disease in the world [10,11], can have considerable effects on nutrient cycling by litterfall and decomposition processes due to the death or damage of trees. For example, pine wilt disease and the associated management practices generate canopy caps and elevate light availability and temperature [12], which possibly stimulates the decomposition process on the forest floor [4,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon and Nitrogen Responses in Litterfall and Litter Decomposition in Red Pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) Stands Disturbed by Pine Wilt Disease

Kim

Baek

et al. 2019

Forests

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Research Highlight: Forest disturbance by insects or disease can have a significant influence on nutrient return by litterfall and decomposition, but information regarding disturbance gradients is scarce. This study demonstrated that the disturbance intensity caused by pine wilt disease greatly altered the quality and quantity of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in litterfall components and decomposition processes. Background and Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate the C and N status of litterfall and litter decomposition processes in a natural red pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) stand disturbed by pine wilt disease in southern Korea. Nine red pine plots with varying degrees of disturbance caused by pine wilt disease were established based on differences in the stand basal area. Litterfall and the decomposition of needle litter and branches under different degrees of disturbance were measured for three years. Results: There was a significant correlation (p < 0.05) between disturbance intensity and the C and N concentration of litterfall components depending on the time of sampling. The annual C and N inputs through litterfall components decreased linearly with decreasing disturbance intensities. The decomposition rates of branches were higher in slightly disturbed plots compared with severely disturbed plots for the late stage of branch decomposition, whereas the decomposition rates of needle litter were not affected by the disturbance intensity of pine wilt disease. Carbon and N concentrations from needle litter and branches were not linearly related to the intensities of disturbance, except for the initial stage (one year) of needle litter decomposition. Conclusions: The results indicated that the incidence of pine wilt disease was a major cause of C and N loss through litterfall and decomposition processes in pine wilt disease disturbed stands, but the magnitude of loss depended on the severity of the disease disturbance.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon and Nitrogen Responses in Litterfall and Litter Decomposition in Red Pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) Stands Disturbed by Pine Wilt Disease

Kim

Baek

et al. 2019

Forests

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“…Any slight change in microclimatic conditions can alter the interactions among B. xylophilus, vector insects, and host trees, which may add more complexity to the PWD system [10,13,50]. Future climate change could potentially lead to more serious PWD-related global Pinus forest resource reduction and habitat degradation [4,51]. Previous research has predicted that the area suitable for development and spread of PWD will increase.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average global temperatures have increased by 0.85 • C in the past few decades and the mean global temperature is predicted to rise 1.1-6.4 • C at the end of the twenty-first century [1]. Climate changes have altered the distribution pattern of major forest insects and diseases worldwide and have increased the extent of damage to forest resources [2][3][4]. Insects are typically ectothermic species and quite sensitive to changes in climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitation, which influence almost all aspects of insect history and population processes [5][6][7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, the fluctuations and increases of temperature in the context of global warming would directly affect the development rate, metabolic rate, survival, range, and other life activities of complicated vector-borne disease systems [8,10,11]. Additionally, it has also been suggested that climate change may have a negative impact on the growth of host trees [4,12,13]. Higher temperatures and water stress associated with drought conditions may negatively affect the physiological processes and defense systems of trees, leading to increased mortality rates [14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have used temperature (such as isotherm approaches and primary temperature-related variables) to estimate and forecast the risk and distribution of PWD in different regions [4,10,13,34,35]. Using the average monthly mean temperatures of the warmest three months, the MaxEnt model was applied to evaluate the risk of PWD expression at a global scale [4]. There is a crucial need to understand the association between PWD outbreak epidemic variables and not only the temperature, but also the precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relationship between Pine Wilt Disease Outbreaks and Climatic Variables in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

Gao

Wang

et al. 2019

Forests

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Outbreaks of pine wilt disease (PWD, caused by the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), have caused mass mortality of the genus Pinus in Eurasia. Climate change may greatly influence the distribution and population dynamics of longhorn beetles of the genus Monochamus (the main vector of B. xylophilus), the survival and development of B. xylophilus, and the resistance of pines. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of climatic variables associated with extensive PWD outbreaks in Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.) forest across the eastern part of the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Since its discovery in 2006, the most serious PWD outbreak occurred from 2014 to 2018; the most striking characteristic of this outbreak is the consistent increase in Masson pine mortality and extent of the affected areas. Moreover, 28 out of 46 PWD biological relevant climatic variables were selected and used for redundancy analysis. The ordination biplots reflect the complicated quantitative relationship between the PWD epidemic variables and the biologically relevant climatic variables of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed. The results will be useful for understanding the role climatic variables play in PWD outbreaks, for predicting the spread and pattern of PWD outbreaks, and for the advance preparation of management strategies with the purpose of preventing future PWD outbreaks.

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Modeling the distribution of pine wilt disease in China using the ensemble models MaxEnt and CLIMEX

Chen,

Lu,

Lamont

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a devastating plant disease caused by the pinewood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) that is transmitted by several beetle species in the genus, Monochamus. Once present, the disease is difficult to control. Prevention rather than control is regarded as an effective strategy for PWD management. Central to this prevention strategy is the ability to predict the potential distribution of the disease. Here, we employed an integrated MaxEnt and CLIMEX approach to model the potential distribution of PWD under various climate‐change scenarios. Our results indicate that rising temperatures and lower humidity under climate change will render some of the northern regions of China more suitable for the nematode and these beetles, causing the gradual northward movement of PWD. Furthermore, suitable habitats for three pine species, Pinus massoniana, P. taiwanensis and P. shurbergia, overlap with PWN and Monochamus, suggesting that these three species are potentially at high risk of PWD. Thus, PWD management should target the northern regions of China and the three pine species that are most susceptible to PWD.

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Estimate global risks of a forest disease under current and future climates using species distribution model and simple thermal model – Pine Wilt disease as a model case

Cited by 93 publications

References 37 publications

Carbon and Nitrogen Responses in Litterfall and Litter Decomposition in Red Pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) Stands Disturbed by Pine Wilt Disease

Carbon and Nitrogen Responses in Litterfall and Litter Decomposition in Red Pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) Stands Disturbed by Pine Wilt Disease

Relationship between Pine Wilt Disease Outbreaks and Climatic Variables in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

Modeling the distribution of pine wilt disease in China using the ensemble models MaxEnt and CLIMEX

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