PrefaceModern performance based earthquake engineering addresses design, evaluation, construction, maintenance and decommission of structures and requires that their performance during an earthquake can be predicted with a known degree of accuracy. In this framework the importance of residual displacements is twofold: On one hand they represent a significant source of damage affecting mainly the serviceability and the repairability of the structure. On the other hand, after an earthquake, residual displacements are often the only measurable indicator of the shaking occurred during the earthquake. In the framework of a pre-earthquake design or assessment process, the expected residual displacements need to be predicted; while during a post-earthquake assessment the actual residual displacements can be measured.Within his present doctoral dissertation, Mr. Yazgan developed and validated against experimental evidence a new and original methodology to improve the estimate of maximum deformations occurred during an earthquake taking into account both observable damage and measurable residual displacements. The methodology is based on the Bayesian probabilistic theory and, as a particular novelty, explicitly considers model error. To estimate model error Mr. Yazgan carried out a very extensive study on the numerical modelling of structures under earthquake, which also allowed the formulation of practical modelling recommendations. The quantification of model error is of course of fundamental importance also for any realistic pre-earthquake prediction of residual displacements.The thorough and comprehensive work presented by Mr. Yazgan allows a deep understanding of the challenges relevant to the use of residual displacements in the seismic performance assessment of structures and his developments represent a new effective way to achieve this important goal.
Zurich, January 2010Dr. Alessandro Dazio
SummarySafety assessment of damaged structures is a pivotal part of the post-earthquake recovery process. As a result of the deformation histories that have occurred during the damaging earthquake, the key structural properties of the columns, beams and walls that contribute to the seismic resistance change. The key structural properties include stiffness, strength and deformation capacity. An accurate estimation of the residual key structural properties is crucial in identifying vulnerability of the damaged structure.These residual structural properties are known to be strongly dependent on the maximum deformations that have occurred. A new post-earthquake assessment method is developed following this premise. After an earthquake, the maximum deformations experienced by a damaged structure can be estimated using the developed method.The essential idea behind the method is to probabilistically estimate the experienced maximum deformations based on the post-earthquake residual displacements and the visible structural damage. The major uncertainties related to the estimated maximum deformations are explicitly treated in the me...