Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie; Verdin, Kristine L.

doi:10.3133/ofr20121188

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…One of the advantages of the approach used is that it provides results in a geospatial form, creating maps that can be understood and communicated more easily to local stakeholders, authorities and even towards the public [96]. Moreover, the approach can function in terrains characterized by the small-sized catchments, with dense infrastructure and population, high resolution results are needed [97,98]. This fits the geo-environmental setting of the Eastern Mediterranean and of Greece in particular, with its mountainous terrain, dominated by high-inclination, ephemeral streams and complex alternating lithologies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation

Diakakis

Mavroulis

Vassilakis

et al. 2023

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Post-fire geomorphic processes and associated risks are an important threat in Mediterranean environments. Currently, post-fire mass movement prediction has limited applications across the Mediterranean despite the abundance of both forest fires and landslide/debris flow disasters. This work applies a debris flow generation likelihood model to evaluate the probability of mass movement phenomena in different catchments of a burnt area, after a catastrophic fire near Schinos (Attica, Greece) in 2021. Then, it uses field observations from the area, recording mass movement phenomena after high-intensity rainfall events, to validate the results. The findings show that the model is successful in determining the probability of debris flow generation in the 21 basins of the study area, ranging from 0.05 to 0.893. The probability values show a statistically significant correlation (sig. = 0.001) with the actual debris flow occurrences in the area, and satisfactory results in terms of the model’s predictive ability, functioning well within the particular geo-environmental characteristics of the Mediterranean environment. The results establish the reliability of the approach as a tool to assess mass movement risks in a region with an abundance of post-fire related hazards and disastrous events.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation

Diakakis

Mavroulis

Vassilakis

et al. 2023

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The heavy rainfall led to extensive and damaging flooding and erosion throughout New Mexico and surrounding states, most severely in areas that had been recently burned, such as the 298,000-acre Whitewater-Baldy fire area that burned the previous summer in Gila National Forest in southern New Mexico. Thirty-minute rainfall intensities on the night of September 14 in the area near Whitewater Creek were equivalent to a 1,000-year recurrence-interval storm-that is, a storm that has a 0.1% chance of being exceeded in a single year and is exceptionally rare (Tillery et al, 2019). The heavy rainfall led to extensive and damaging flooding and debris flows within and around the Whitewater-Baldy burn scar.…”

Section: Post-wildfire Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sediment mobilized during this single event was estimated to be over 5,000,000 ft 3 , or 0.04-in. basin-average erosion depth in the 54-mi 2 Whitewater Creek watershed alone (Tillery et al, 2019). For context, this is enough sediment to fill 295 railroad box cars or a train 3.4 miles long.…”

Section: Post-wildfire Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…New Mexico postfire debris flow data all indicate very high yields. The 2012 Whitewater-Baldy fire in the Gila basin resulted in debris flow yields of up to 2.13 acre-ft/mi 2 (Tillery et al, 2019), and debris flow yields from individual basins in the 2011 Las Conchas fire in the Santa Clara Creek drainage basin ranged from 6.4 to 17.3 acre-ft/mi 2 in the first 2 years following the fire (Tetra Tech, 2013a).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On the Riversmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

Dunbar¹,

Gutzler²,

Pearthree³

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

All water that we use in New Mexico originates as rain or snow falling onto the landscape, which either goes to groundwater or surface water or returns to the atmosphere. Of the precipitation that falls on the state, 1.6% runs off into streams and rivers, and 1.8% infiltrates into the ground, recharging subsurface aquifers. Much larger proportions are transpired by plants (78.9%) or evaporated (17.7%). The impact of climate change on all of these pathways will affect our state's water budget. Notably, because of the larger percentages of water lost to evaporation or transpiration, even very small changes in these factors will result in large changes to runoff and recharge. As mentioned in Chapter 2, the climate will continue to warm over the next 50 years, likely without an increase in precipitation, leading to greater statewide aridity. Hydrological modeling indicates declines in both runoff and recharge going forward, amounting to 3% to 5% per decade for both quantities. Historical trends in runoff indicate significant year-to-year variability, as do trends in soil moisture and recharge. But all are generally decreasing, consistent with the results of climate models that project a drying climate. Combining the historical trends with modeling of future changes, significant decreases in runoff and recharge seem very likely. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMSClimate is a fundamental driver of ongoing and future vegetation changes in New Mexico. Future changes in vegetation will affect the distribution and abundance of water resources in New Mexico. Major shifts in climate and vegetation across New Mexico's landscapes have occurred in the past, but the scale and rate of recent and projected climate change is probably unprecedented during the past 11,000 years. Recent warming, along with frequent and persistent droughts, have amplified the severity of vegetation disturbance processes like fire, physiological drought stress, and insect outbreaks, driving substantial changes in New Mexico vegetation since the year 2000. Ongoing and projected vegetation changes include growth declines, reduced canopy and ground cover, massive tree mortality episodes, and species changes in dominant vegetation-foreshadowing more severe changes to come if current warming trends continue as projected. Such major alterations of New Mexico vegetation likely will also have substantial ecohydrological feedbacks with New Mexico water resources. Since water-related environmental stresses occur in parallel with water supply shortages for people, such climate-change-driven water stress could lead to increasing conflict between managing declining water available for human use (e.g., irrigation) and retaining "wild" water for the maintenance of historical ecosystems.

show abstract

Geographic distribution of genetic diversity in populations of Rio Grande Chub Gila pandora

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation

Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

Geographic distribution of genetic diversity in populations of Rio Grande Chub Gila pandora

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About