Estimates and trends of the global burden of NASH-related liver cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in 1990–2019: analysis of data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background Experimental and epidemiological studies have indicated an association between diabetes exposure and an increased risk of liver cancer due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, to date, no systematic study has specifically investigated the burden of NASH-related liver cancer due to exposure to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) levels worldwide. Methods The number and rate of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from HFPG-induced NASH-related liver cancer were estimated based on the results of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death or DALYs rates were calculated using a generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution to quantify the temporal trends in the global burden of NASH-related liver cancer attributable to HFPG. The strength and direction of the association between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and death or DALY rate were measured using Spearman’s rank-order correlation. Results Globally, approximately 7.59% of all DALY and 8.76% of all mortalities of NASH-related liver cancer in 2019 were due to HFPG. The age-standardized death and DALY rates of NASH-related liver cancer attributable to HFPG increased from 1990 to 2019. The corresponding EAPCs were 0.69 (95% UI 0.48–0.89), and 0.30 (95% UI 0.05–0.56), respectively. This increasing pattern was most obvious in the high- and low-SDI regions. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate of NASH-related liver cancer attributable to HFPG varies considerably worldwide, with the middle SDI region having the highest death and DALY rates in 2019 (DALY 0.96 [95% UI 0.23–2.18]; death 0.05 [95% UI 0.01–0.11]). Conclusion The burden of NASH-related liver cancer attributable to HFPG has increased over the past three decades, particularly in regions with high and low SDI.

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