Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

Wing, Oliver; Bates, Paul; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Chris; Johnson, Kris; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip E.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65

Cited by 325 publications

(241 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In the US in particular, both historically-expected floods increase in frequency as well as unprecedented floods are expected to amplify with climate change [3]. Moreover, current population and assets exposure is argued to be underestimated, with 41 mln people living in 1:100 year flood zone instead of 13 falling under the official Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps [4]. Rapid population growth and urbanization in coastal and wetland areas, driven by economic, cultural and environmental amenities that the coast and waterways offer [5], lead to further increase of assets and the number of people exposed to intensified flood hazards [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Repetitive floods intensify outmigration and climate gentrification in coastal cities

Koning

Filatova

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Recent floods in America, Europe, Asia and Africa reminded societies across the world of the need to revisit their climate adaptation strategies. Rapid urbanization coinciding with a growing frequency and intensity of floods requires transformative actions in cities worldwide. While abandoning flood prone areas is sometimes discussed as a public climate adaptation option, little attention is paid to studying cumulative impacts of outmigration as an individual choice. To explore the aggregated consequences of households' outmigration decisions in response to increasing flood hazards, we employ a computational agent-based model grounded in empirical heuristics of buyers' and sellers' behaviour in a flood-prone housing market. Our results suggest that pure market-driven processes can cause shifts in demographics in climate-sensitive hotspots placing low-income households further at risk. They get trapped in hazard zones, even when individual risk perceptions and behavioural location preferences are independent of income, suggesting increasing climate gentrification as an outcome of market sorting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Repetitive floods intensify outmigration and climate gentrification in coastal cities

Koning

Filatova

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Recent work, for instance, has shown that flood hazard maps used to inform contingency planning, zoning, and insurance premiums for the federalized U.S. National Flood Insurance Program woefully underestimate the risk of inundation (Oliver et al, 2018). Recent work, for instance, has shown that flood hazard maps used to inform contingency planning, zoning, and insurance premiums for the federalized U.S. National Flood Insurance Program woefully underestimate the risk of inundation (Oliver et al, 2018).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001242mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of the dangers posed by extremes are predictable, yet we are still underestimating the risks in most practical contexts. Recent work, for instance, has shown that flood hazard maps used to inform contingency planning, zoning, and insurance premiums for the federalized U.S. National Flood Insurance Program woefully underestimate the risk of inundation (Oliver et al, 2018). But even more realistic contemporary estimates of flood risk often fail to account for the fact that the climate itself is changing and that the risk of extreme precipitation is increasing.…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001242mentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

et al. 2019

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Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, absorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed. The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near-term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea-level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of change. The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

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“…In many watersheds, longer summer dry periods together with increases in air temperature and ET could exacerbate low flow conditions (e.g., Wei et al 2012;Caldwell et al 2016), concentrating pollutant inputs. At the same time, warmer temperatures are expected to drive more frequent heavy precipitation events that increase the risk of high flow and flooding throughout the U.S. (Prein et al 2016;USGCRP 2017;Wing et al 2018). Excessive instream pollutant loading is commonly associated with such events.…”

Section: Journal Of the American Water Resources Associationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

Paul

Coffey

Stamp

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

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Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

Cited by 325 publications

References 20 publications

Repetitive floods intensify outmigration and climate gentrification in coastal cities

Repetitive floods intensify outmigration and climate gentrification in coastal cities

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

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