American eel (Anguilla rostrata) complete their life cycle by migrating from the east coast of North America to Sargasso Sea, where they spawn planktonic eggs and dye. Larvae that develop from eggs need to return to North American coastal waters within the first year of life and are influenced by the oceanic currents during this journey. A coupled physical-biological model is used to investigate the extent to which inter-annual changes in the ocean circulation affect the success rates of larvae in reaching coastal nursery habitats. Our results suggest that natural oceanic variability can lead to changes in larval success rates by a factor of 2. Interannual variation in success rates are strongly affected by the Gulf Stream inertial overshoot events, with the largest success in years with an inertial overshoot and the smallest in years with a straighter and more southern configuration of the Gulf Stream downstream of Cape Hatteras. The mean Gulf Stream length and latitude between 75W and 70W longitude can be used as proxies for characterizing the overshoot events and can be converted into success rates using linear regression.The American eel (Anguilla rostrata) is a species of great scientific and economic interest. This catadromous fish, which spawns in the ocean but lives in freshwater throughout most of its life cycle, undertakes a remarkable once-in-alifetime migration from its freshwater habitats along the east coast of North America to the Sargasso Sea, where it spawns planktonic eggs and dies (Schmidt 1923(Schmidt , 1925(Schmidt , 1931. Spawning occurs in Feb-Mar of each year, after which eggs hatch into small and vulnerable leptocephalus larvae (McCleave et al. , 1998McCleave 2008). To develop into juvenile glass eels and then into adults, eel larvae need to reach coastal waters along the North American coast within their first year of life (Kleckner and McCleave 1985;McCleave 1993). Initially, American eel larvae have limited swimming ability; this ability improves in later larval stages (Fisher et al. 2000;Miller 2009) and, after metamorphosing into glass eels, can reach short-term swimming speeds of 11.7-13. Many details of the American eel larvae journey remain a mystery, including the exact location of their spawning site, their ability to navigate by physical cues in the open ocean, their strategy for crossing the strong oceanic transport barriers separating the Sargasso Sea from the coast, namely the Gulf Stream and the continental slope/shelf break front of the Middle-or South-Atlantic Bight, and the extent to which ocean circulation variability can influence variability in the likelihood that larvae will reach coastal nursery habitats. It is the latter mystery that we are trying to clarify in this article.Specifically, we make use of the coupled physical-biological numerical model developed by Rypina et al. (2014), which combines an eddy resolving model of North Atlantic circulation with a simple but scientifically-motivated swimming and navigation strategy for American eel larvae, to si...