Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China

Abstract

High ratios of males to females in China, which have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990), have increased in the wake of China's one-child policy, which began in 1979. Chinese policymakers are currently attempting to correct the imbalance in the sex ratio through initiatives that provide financial compensation to parents with daughters. Other scholars have advocated a relaxation of the one-child policy to allow more parents to have a son without engaging in sex selection. In this article, I present a model of fertility choice when parents have access to a sex-selection technology and face a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I estimate the relative price of a son and daughter for mothers observed in China's census data (1982-2000). I find that a couple's first son is worth 1.42 years of income more than a first daughter, and the premium is highest among less-educated mothers and families engaged in agriculture. Simulations indicate that a subsidy of 1 year of income to families without a son would reduce the number of "missing girls" by 67% but impose an annual cost of 1.8% of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). Alternatively, a three-child policy would reduce the number of "missing girls" by 56% but increase the fertility rate by 35%.

Risk Aversion and Son Preference: Experimental Evidence from Chinese Twin Parents

“…Sen (2003) concludes that in the 2000s, about 100 million women were missing worldwide. In China alone, for instance, the sex ratio at birth rose from a biologically normal range of 1.03-1.06 to 1.11 in 1990, and further increased to 1.20 in 2000, resulting in 33 million excess men under the age of 20 (Ebenstein, 2011).…”

“…Alesina, Giuliano, and Nunn (2013) explore historical origins of cross-cultural differences in the role of women in society, and find that traditional agricultural practices, such as plowing, influenced the historical gender division of labor and the evolution of gender norms. 3 Our paper borrows insights from behavioral economics, and presents the first at-1 For the long-run socioeconomic consequences of gender imbalance, see Rao (1993), Angrist (2002), Chiappori, Fortin, andLacroix (2002), Das Gupta (2005), Ebenstein (2010Ebenstein ( , 2011, Wei and Zhang (2011), Bethmann and Kvasnicka (2012), Das Gupta, Ebenstein, and Sharygin (2013), Edlund, Li, Yi, and Zhang (2013), and Hu and Schlosser (2015). 2 Leung (1988,1991) proposes the econometric method to detect son preference using fertility data.…”

Sex Discrimination and Female Top Managers: Evidence from China

“…Unlike developed markets, such as the U.S. or Europe, discrimination against females is more severe and explicit in China due to social norms and weaker legal protection for women (OECD 2012;World Bank 2013). Moreover, compared to developed economies, there are greater variations in sex discrimination across different areas within China (Ebenstein 2011;Wei and Zhang 2011a), which allows us to implement withincountry comparative studies. In addition, as of 2014, China is the second largest economy in the world; thus, understanding how corporate managers are selected in China is economically meaningful from a global perspective.…”

Sex-Selective Abortions, Fertility, and Birth Spacing

“…In the Republic of Korea simulations suggested that introduction of sex selection changed family size little, but did result in abortions of female fetuses equal to about five percent of actual female births (Park and Cho, 1995). For China allowing a three-child policy has been predicted to increase the fertility rate by 35 percent, but also reduce the number of girls aborted by 56 percent (Ebenstein, 2011). 6 Most of the sex selection in China is due to parents with low levels of education (Ebenstein, 2011).…”

“…For China allowing a three-child policy has been predicted to increase the fertility rate by 35 percent, but also reduce the number of girls aborted by 56 percent (Ebenstein, 2011). 6 Most of the sex selection in China is due to parents with low levels of education (Ebenstein, 2011).…”