Abstract. Active-layer thickness was determined in late August 1995 and 1996 at 100 m intervals over seven 1 km 2 grids in the Arctic Coastal Plain and Arctic Foothills physiographic provinces of northern Alaska. Collectively, the sampled areas integrate the range of regional terrain, soil, and vegetation characteristics in this region. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that patterns of active-layer thickness are governed closely by topographic detail, acting through near-surface hydrology. On the coastal plain, maximum variability occurs at scales involving hundreds of meters, and patterns were similar in the two years. Substantially less spatial structure and interannual correspondence were found within the foothill sites, where high variability occurs over smaller distances. The divergence in patterns of thaw depth between the two provinces reflects the scale of local terrain features, which predetermines the effectiveness of fixed sampling intervals. Exploratory analysis should be performed to ascertain the scale(s) of maximum variability within representative areas prior to selection of sampling intervals and development of long-term monitoring programs.
IntroductionThe active layer, a thickness of soil or other earth material above permafrost, experiences freezing and thawing on an annual basis. Given similar surface cover and soil properties, the active layer thins progressively toward the poles in response to shorter, cooler summers. Under a warming climate, such as that predicted by many general circulation models