Estimating Community Incidence ofSalmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producingEscherichia coliInfections, Australia

Abstract

To estimate multipliers linking surveillance of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections to community incidence, we used data from a gastroenteritis survey and other sources. Multipliers for severe (bloody stool/long duration) and milder cases were estimated from the component probabilities of doctor visit, stool test, sensitivity of laboratory test, and reporting to surveillance system. Pathogens were classifi ed by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied. Precision of estimates was quantifi ed by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The multiplier for salmonellosis was estimated at 7 (95% CrI 4-16), for campylobacteriosis at 10 (95% CrI 7-22), and for STEC at 8 (95% CrI 3-75). Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively. Estimation of multipliers allows assessment of the true effects of these diseases and better understanding of public health surveillance.

Community incidence of pathogen-specific gastroenteritis: reconstructing the surveillance pyramid for seven pathogens in seven European Union member states

“…Other authors have previously reported similar studies to reconstruct the surveillance pyramid for specific pathogens or for gastrointestinal illness in general [1,9,[11][12][13]33]. The current study is more comprehensive than previous studies, considering seven enteric pathogens in seven countries.…”

“…One study also accounted for the duration of illness as a determinant of seeking medical care and of stool examination. None of the previously published studies considered differences in reporting rates for hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients, and only one study attempted full uncertainty analysis [13].…”

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