Estimating COVID-19 pandemic severity in Indian context

Abstract

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents one of the most vital factors in demonstrating the severity of novel infectious disease, COVID-19. Various estimates of COVID-19 fatalities (based on the publicly and published information and data in Indian context of COVID-19): confirmed CFR, asymptomatic CFR, symptomatic CFR, and hospitalized CFR were 2.32% (2.05-2.59), 0.14% (0.12-0.16), 0.32% (0.27-0.36), 1.86% (1.64-2.07) respectively. The relative susceptibility of developing symptoms (RSODS) and relative susceptibility of developing infection (RSODI) of COVID-19 were ~33 times higher among people aged <45 years. The RSODS estimates were 1.97 (0.47-3.47), 0.62 (0.15-1.09), 0.29 (0.07-0.52), 0.06 (0.02-0.10) respectively, for patients <45 years, 45-60, 60-75, >75 years. Similar trend, for RSODI were found, with relatively higher value, compared to RSODS, which decreased with the increase of age. The 14-day lag estimate of CFR were 18.07 (15.67-20.47), and outcome (deaths plus recoveries)-based estimate of CFR were 16.57 (14.65-18.49). The growth rate, serial interval, reproduction number and average time from onset of COVID-19 infection to death were 6.12% (5.30%-6.99%), 11.4 days (9.91-12.85), 1.03 (1.01-1.05), and 11.85 days (10.55-13.15), respectively. Among 1,673,688 samples tested, 62,939 (3.76%) were positive for COVID-19 accounting 1,228 tests per million population of India, as of May 10, 2020. The average daily recovery was 19.45% (14.75- 24.15) and average cumulative recovery was 12.68% (10.70- 14.66) among COVID-19 patients. As per our belief and knowledge, this is the first study of its kind in reporting COVID-19 severity in Indian context during pandemic.

Onset, Transmission, Impact, and Management of COVID-19 Epidemic at Early Stage in SAARC Countries

“…is being noticed worldwide, even including the countries of high nominal GDP such as USA, United Kingdom etc., SAARC countries with poor/medium income are not exceptional [73,74]. Although the data of PPE distributed/ available have not been found for all the countries, reports from Bangladesh (21,21,285-as of 10 May), India (21.32 lakh-as of 9 May [75]), Nepal (9158-as of Apr, source: NEOC, Ministry of Home Affairs and Provincial Health Directorate, 26th Chaitra 2076 (8th April 2020).) and Pakistan (16,700-as of Apr) [51,71,75] showed that the available PPE or the budget for PPE is far below the demand.…”

“…Although the data of PPE distributed/ available have not been found for all the countries, reports from Bangladesh (21,21,285-as of 10 May), India (21.32 lakh-as of 9 May [75]), Nepal (9158-as of Apr, source: NEOC, Ministry of Home Affairs and Provincial Health Directorate, 26th Chaitra 2076 (8th April 2020).) and Pakistan (16,700-as of Apr) [51,71,75] showed that the available PPE or the budget for PPE is far below the demand. An increase in PPE supply in response to this new demand will require a large increase in PPE manufacturing, a process that will take time many health care systems do not have, given the rapid increase in COVID-19 patients.…”

Analysis of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in the States and Union Territories of India

“…He also suggested that women are half as likely to be infected by Covid-19 as men with signi cantly lower infection rates for women between puberty and menopause. Similarly, Manisha Mandal and Shyamapada Mandal 12 found that the relative susceptibility of developing symptoms (RSODS) and relative susceptibility of developing an infection (RSODI) was almost 33 times higher among younger people aged below 45 years. William Joe et al 13 found that males share a higher rate of Covid-19 infection than women, but the infection is evenly distributed in under 5 and elderly age groups.…”