Estimating daily fire risk in the mesoscale by means of a Bayesian network model and a coupled GIS

Papakosta, Panagiota; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zwirglmaier, Kilian

doi:10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_81

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The Department of Forests points to topography, weather, and climate as the main factors defining forest fire risk, in addition to human activities shaping the biophysical landscape (Department of Forests n.d.). There are, however, few studies or acknowledgement of underlying systemic factors of wildfire regimes and their impact (Papakosta and Straub 2013;Papakosta et al 2014) Reconceptualising wildfire as a process and risk in Cyprus will require engaging and investing into various disciplines, sectors and types of knowledge. Scholars to date published research on residents' perceptions (Karanikola et al 2015), historic practices of burning (Harris 2007), and the economic impact of wildfire (Papakosta et al 2017).…”

Section: Cyprus and The Social Conditions Of Vulnerability And Impact...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Kirschner,

Steelman,

Charalambidou

et al. 2024

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Global environmental and social change are pushing wildfire activity and impact beyond known trajectories. Here, we conducted a targeted review to distill five wildfire challenges that we argue form opportunities for their governance (research aim 1). We exemplified our arguments by drawing from the case of Cyprus (research aim 2), a small island country in the south-east European Mediterranean Basin at risk of extreme wildfire impact. Findings indicate that burning for social and ecological resource benefits, innovative management paradigms and anticipatory governance systems offer actionable solutions to the wildfire paradox and the limits of suppression. Local adaptive institutions and a reconceptualisation of wildfire as a risk and process beyond technocratic interpretations are necessary to account for broader social conditions shaping wildfire regimes and community impact. Governance systems that accommodate collective action have proven suitable to address multiple wildfire complexities linked with different socio-economic systems and values. A systematic literature review, policy review, and qualitative data collection on wildfire management in Cyprus track back to the initial framing. Our case study offers insights for tackling wildfires with actionable steps through overarching governance systems, and illustrates the potential for change in thinking of and acting on wildfire in flammable landscapes globally.

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Section: Cyprus and The Social Conditions Of Vulnerability And Impact...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Kirschner,

Steelman,

Charalambidou

et al. 2024

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…The reason for this omission is that in the present study, we account for specific hazard characteristics and are not interested in modelling the hazard itself. However, in a full risk analysis, these links must be included, as shown in Papakosta et al (2014). Fire type distinguishes between a surface fire with flame length ,3.5 m, a surface fire with flame length .3.5 m and a crown fire (Table 1).…”

Section: Economic Losses To Housing By Bayesian Network Int J Wildmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The arc is introduced here in view of an extension to a larger BN, which includes fire size prediction, i.e. a model that predicts Burnt area (Papakosta et al 2014). The variable Fire type and its probabilities conditional on Burnt area are ideally defined based on data.…”

Section: Economic Losses To Housing By Bayesian Network Int J Wildmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

Papakosta

Xanthopoulos²,

Straub

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Loss prediction models are an important part of wildfire risk assessment, but have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. Such models can support decision-making on preventive measures targeting fuels or potential ignition sources, on fire suppression, on mitigation of consequences and on effective allocation of funds. This paper presents a probabilistic model for predicting wildfire housing loss at the mesoscale (1 km 2 ) using Bayesian network (BN) analysis. The BN enables the construction of an integrated model based on causal relationships among the influencing parameters jointly with the associated uncertainties. Input data and models are gathered from literature and expert knowledge to overcome the lack of housing loss data in the study area. Numerical investigations are carried out with spatiotemporal datasets for the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The BN is coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) and the resulting estimated house damages for a given fire hazard are shown in maps. The BN model can be attached to a wildfire hazard model to determine wildfire risk in a spatially explicit manner. The developed model is specific to areas with house characteristics similar to those found in Cyprus, but the general methodology is transferable to any other area, as well as other damages.

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“…In particular, forest fires are a major environmental issue in Greece (Hadjibiros 2001) and many other Mediterranean countries characterized by long periods of dry and hot weather conditions (Papakosta et al 2014). Pine forests and shrubs, especially at low-altitudes in peri-urban areas (Wildland Urban Interface), are among the most threatened types of vegetation (Chas-Amil et al 2013;Papakosta et al 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Road transport emissions and capacity of forests in the region of Athens for sequestring these emissions: carbon flow before and after forest fires

Chatzimpiros

Roumelioti²,

Zamba³

et al. 2016

European Journal of Environmental Sciences

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One important component of the urban contribution to carbon dioxide atmospheric emissions is road transport. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from urban road transport in the centre of Athens recorded over a period of five years (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) are compared with the carbon sequestration capacity of regional forests, prior to and after the devastating forest fires in Attica in 2007 and 2009, which is the administrative region of Athens. The comparison of carbon flow reveals two complementary aspects of the same socio-environmental issue: persistent sources versus weakening sinks for CO 2 within a mixed (urban and rural) setting. Road transport emissions are calculated bottom-up using traffic data from in-situ measurements along segments of main roads. The sequestration capacity of forests is estimated by combining satellite images of changes in land cover with literature values of biomass growth rates. Over the study period, the per capita CO 2 emissions averaged 0.72 t CO 2 /cap/year, which is four times higher than the sequestration capacity of forests before and six times higher after the fires. This imbalance highlights the inadequacy of the local carbon sink. Although there is no biogeochemical need to neutralise carbon budgets locally, defining the CO 2 flows from urban activities and local ecosystems is likely to raise awareness and promote global environmental sustainability. The results are compared with top-down estimates of CO 2 emissions at a regional scale, where suburban areas are dominant, and the differences are discussed in the light of local socioeconomic factors.

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Estimating daily fire risk in the mesoscale by means of a Bayesian network model and a coupled GIS

Cited by 3 publications

References 4 publications

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

Road transport emissions and capacity of forests in the region of Athens for sequestring these emissions: carbon flow before and after forest fires

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