Estimating Effect of Antiviral Drug Use during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, United States

Atkins, Charisma Y.; Patel, Anita; Taylor, Thomas H.; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Merlin, Toby L.; Dulin, Stephanie; Erickson, Benjamin A.; Borse, Rebekah H.; Hunkler, Robert J.; Meltzer, Martin I.

doi:10.3201/eid1709.110295

Cited by 33 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…We calculated the potential demand for NAIs across age groups (0–9, 10–19, 20–59, ≥60 years) for a range of pandemic scenarios using methods based on previous work [27]. To do so, we used assumptions regarding the clinical attack rate [22], the proportion of the population that would likely require treatment, seek medical care and be prescribed NAIs [25, 26], the number of regimens that may be dispensed for chemoprophylaxis or saved for a personal stockpile, and the proportion of those with non-influenza illness who may also receive NAI treatment [27].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the United States Demand for Influenza Antivirals and the Effect on Severe Influenza Disease During a Potential Pandemic

O’Hagan

Wong

Campbell

et al. 2015

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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Following the detection of a novel influenza strain, A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5,200–248,000 deaths; 4,800–504,000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25,000–425,000 deaths; 583,000–3,700,000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the United States Demand for Influenza Antivirals and the Effect on Severe Influenza Disease During a Potential Pandemic

O’Hagan

Wong

Campbell

et al. 2015

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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“…Some studies have suggested that aggressive treatment policies can effectively mitigate local transmission ( 16 , 17 ). In preparation for future influenza pandemics, the US Department of Health and Human Services therefore maintains a large Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) of antiviral drugs ( 18 ), and most states include SNS antiviral drugs as a major component of their pandemic response plans ( 19 – 22 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Distribution of Pandemic Influenza Antiviral Drugs

Singh¹,

Huang²,

Morton³

et al. 2015

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…The demographic variables that could affect the distribution of influenza A infections in populations are gender [16][17][18][19], age [15], clinical signs [20], vaccination against flu [21], usage of antimicrobials [22,24], smoking habits [25,29], and ethnicity [30,31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic distribution and transmission potential of influenza A and 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in pilgrims

Ashshi

Azhar

Johargy

et al. 2014

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Introduction: The World Health Organization's persistent reporting of global outbreaks of influenza A viruses, including the 2009 pandemic swine A H1N1 strain (H1N1pdm09), justified the targeted surveillance of pilgrims during their annual congregation that pools more than two million people from around 165 nations in a confined area of Makkah city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Methodology: A total of 1,600 pilgrims were included in the targeted surveillance of influenza A and the 2009 pandemic swine H1N1 strain in the Hajj (pilgrimage) season of 2010. Each pilgrim responded to a demographic and health questionnaire. Collected oropharyngeal swabs were analyzed by real-time PCR for influenza A viruses, and positive samples were further analyzed for the presence of H1N1pdm09. Fisher's exact test was applied in the analysis of the significance of the distribution of influenza-positive pilgrims according to demographic characters. Results: A total of 120 pilgrims (7.5%) tested positive for influenza A viruses by real-time PCR. Nine out of the 120 influenza-A-positive pilgrims (7.5%) were positive for H1N1pdm09. Demographics played a significant role in those pilgrims who tested positive for influenza A. Conclusions: The detection of H1N1pdm09 in pilgrims at their port of entry to the KSA was alarming, due to the high potential of transboundary transmission. This situation necessitates the implementation of specific prevention and control programs to limit infection by influenza A viruses.

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Estimating Effect of Antiviral Drug Use during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, United States

Cited by 33 publications

References 18 publications

Estimating the United States Demand for Influenza Antivirals and the Effect on Severe Influenza Disease During a Potential Pandemic

Estimating the United States Demand for Influenza Antivirals and the Effect on Severe Influenza Disease During a Potential Pandemic

Optimizing Distribution of Pandemic Influenza Antiviral Drugs

Demographic distribution and transmission potential of influenza A and 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in pilgrims

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