Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21

Wang, Haidong; Paulson, Katherine; Pease, Spencer A.; Watson, Stefanie; Comfort, Haley; Zheng, Peng; Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.; Bisignano, Catherine; Barber, Ryan M; Alam, Tahiya; Fuller, John E; May, Erin A.; Jones, Darwin Phan; Frisch, Meghan E; Abbafati, Cristiana; Adolph, Christopher; Allorant, Adrien; Amlag, Joanne O; Bang-Jensen, Bree; Bertolacci, Gregory J; Bloom, Sabina S; Carter, Austin; Castro, Emma; Chakrabarti, Suman; Chattopadhyay, Jhilik; Cogen, Rebecca M; Collins, James K.; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Dai, Xiaochen; Dangel, William James; Daoud, Farah; Dapper, Carolyn; Deen, Amanda; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Erickson, Megan; Ewald, Samuel B; Fedosseeva, Tatiana; Ferrari, Alize J.; Frostad, Joseph; Fullman, Nancy; Gallagher, John; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Guo, Gaorui; He, Jiawei; Helak, Monika; Henry, Nathaniel J.; Hulland, Erin N; Huntley, Bethany M; Kereselidze, Maia; Lazzar-Atwood, Alice; LeGrand, Kate E; Lindstrom, Akiaja; Linebarger, Emily; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Magistro, Beatrice; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Månsson, Johan; Herrera, Ana Maria Mantilla; Marinho, Fátima; Mirkuzie, Alemnesh H.; Misganaw, Awoke; Monasta, Lorenzo; Naik, Paulami; Nomura, Shuhei; O'Brien, Edward G; O'Halloran, James Kevin; Olana, Latera Tesfaye; Ostroff, Samuel M; Penberthy, Louise; Reiner, Robert C.; Reinke, Grace; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho; Santomauro, Damian; Schmidt, María Inês; Shaw, David; Sheena, Brittney S; Sholokhov, Aleksei; Skhvitaridze, Natia; Sorensen, Reed J D; Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth; Syailendrawati, Ruri; Topór-Mądry, Roman; Troeger, Christopher; Walcott, Rebecca; Walker, Ally; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Worku, Nahom Alemseged; Zigler, Bethany; Pigott, David M.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H.; Lim, Stephen S; Hay, Simon I; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Murray, Christopher J L

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02796-3

Cited by 1,311 publications

(971 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…It is possible that participants in this study died from other causes but were reported as death due to Covid-19 because they happened to have been SARS-Cov-2 positive when they died. Nevertheless, a recent study analyzing excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated that the Israeli rate of excess death is in accordance with its Covid-19 mortality reports (14).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Second Booster Vaccine and Covid-19 Mortality in Adults 60 to 100 Years Old

Arbel

Sergienko

Friger

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The rapid emergence of the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 led to a global resurgence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Israeli authorities approved a 4th Covid-19 vaccine dose (second-booster) for individuals aged 60 and above who received a first booster dose four or more months earlier. Evidence regarding the effectiveness of a second-booster dose in reducing mortality due to Covid-19 is warranted. This retrospective cohort study included all members of Clalit Health Services, aged 60 to 100, eligible for the second-booster. Mortality due to Covid-19 among participants who received the second-booster was compared with participants who received one booster dose. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate the association between the second-booster and death due to Covid-19 while adjusting for demographic factors and coexisting illnesses. A total of 563,465 participants met the eligibility criteria. Of those, 328,597 (58%) received a second-booster dose during the 40-day study period. Death due to Covid-19 occurred in 92 second-booster recipients and in 232 participants who received one booster dose (adjusted hazard ratio 0.22; 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 0.28). This study demonstrates a substantial reduction in Covid-19 mortality by the second-booster in eligible subjects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Second Booster Vaccine and Covid-19 Mortality in Adults 60 to 100 Years Old

Arbel

Sergienko

Friger

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Estimates of total COVID-19 mortality were constructed with use of the statistical model developed by the COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators to predict the excess mortality rate for all locations between Jan 1, 2020, and Nov 14, 2021. 16 To estimate total COVID-19 mortality, we predicted a counterfactual excess mortality rate due to COVID-19 in which the IDR was set to the maximum observed values among all locations. The predicted excess mortality rate from this counterfactual analysis, corrected for under-reporting, resulted from insufficient testing and changes in mortality driven by behaviours such as deferred health care during periods of lockdown.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7 , 10 , 11 , 12 One study estimated infections in the USA and other select countries, 13 and other studies have done multinational systematic reviews and meta-analyses of seroprevalence surveys. 14 , 15 The fundamental problem in all of these analyses is that each of the data series observed has potential biases: reported cases capture only a portion of infections, and this portion will be a function of the availability of testing; reported deaths capture only a subset of total COVID-19 deaths, and the infection–fatality ratio (IFR) can vary widely over time and across locations; 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 the proportion of patients with an infection who are admitted to hospital can also vary over time and location; and seroprevalence surveys can be influenced by sampling design, waning of sensitivity of antibody tests, and vaccination rates. Few studies have combined data from reported cases, reported deaths, hospitalisations, and seroprevalence surveys to triangulate daily infections, and WHO only routinely reports confirmed cases, not estimated infections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis

Barber¹,

Sorensen²,

Pigott³

et al. 2022

The Lancet

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237

163

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“…The huge number of deaths reported during COVID-19 in Italy has raised great concerns about the management of the COVID-19 pandemic emergency in the European Union (EU) countries, and more generally in Europe [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ]. In particular, it seems that Italy suffered from excess COVID-19-caused mortality when compared to other European countries [ 6 , 7 , 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, it seems that Italy suffered from excess COVID-19-caused mortality when compared to other European countries [ 6 , 7 , 8 ]. Experts are still wondering if the major causes of this excess have to be attributed to the Italian Government’s policy or, rather, to geographical and environmental factors [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. People are still asking if political interventions on the basis of medical expertise and updated scientific knowledge, were effective in dampening the epidemiological impact of cases, hospitalization and deaths on the general population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Medical and Pharmacological Management in the European Countries Compared to Italy: An Overview

Pandolfi

Valdenassi

Bjørklund

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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(1) Background: Italy accounts for more than 150,000 deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the top rank in SARS-CoV-2-caused deceases in Europe. A survey on the different ways by which the COVID-19 pandemic emergency was managed in the foreign European countries compared to Italy is the purpose of this paper. (2) Methods: A literature search and various mathematical algorithms to approach a rank scoring scale were used to describe in detail the different approaches used by European countries to manage the COVID-19 pandemic emergency. (3) Results: The study showed that Italy stands at the bottom ranking for COVID-19 management due to its high mortality rate. Possible causes of the observed huge numbers of hospitalization and deaths were (a) the demographic composition of the European country; (b) its decentralized healthcare system organization; (c) the role of correct pharmacology in the early stages before hospitalization. Post-mortem examinations were of paramount importance to elucidate the etiopathogenesis of COVID-19 and to tailor a suitable and proper therapy in the early symptomatic stages of COVID-19, preventing hospitalization. (4) Conclusions: Factors such as the significant impact on elderly people, the public health organization prevalently state-owned and represented mainly by hospitals, and criticism of the home therapy approach toward SARS-CoV-2-infected people, may have concurred in increasing the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy.

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Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21

Cited by 1,311 publications

References 32 publications

Second Booster Vaccine and Covid-19 Mortality in Adults 60 to 100 Years Old

Second Booster Vaccine and Covid-19 Mortality in Adults 60 to 100 Years Old

Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis

COVID-19 Medical and Pharmacological Management in the European Countries Compared to Italy: An Overview

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