Estimating geographic patterns of ophidism risk in Ecuador

Yáñez‐Arenas, Carlos; Díaz‐Gamboa, Luis; Patrón-Rivero, Carlos; López-Reyes, Kevin; Chiappa‐Carrara, Xavier

doi:10.1080/23766808.2018.1454762

Cited by 17 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…We also suggest that areas where snakebite envenoming risk is high should be monitored to determine envenoming events and villagers in these areas must always have access to antivenom supplies 14 . Species distribution models are becoming important tools in public health research 12,17,[68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77] . We encourage public hearth researchers to apply SDMs in developing snakebite risk map using venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicator, especially in data poor regions of the world [51][52][53]78 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Yousefi

Kafash

Khani³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modelling methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling, Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes’ habitat suitability (Macrovipera lebetinus, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja oxiana) were modelled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetinus, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. Precipitation seasonality was identified as the most important variable influencing distribution of the P. persicus, E. carinatus and M. lebetinus in Iran. Precipitation of the driest quarter was the most important predictor of suitable habitats of the N. oxiana. Since climatic variables play an important role in shaping the distribution of the four venomous snakes in Iran, thus their distribution may alter with changing climate. This paper demonstrates application of species distribution modelling in public health research and identified potential snakebite risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability models as an indicating factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human–snake conflict management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest snakebite risk.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Yousefi

Kafash

Khani³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Under climate change some venomous species may expand their distribution ranges [56-86], thus, envenoming risk will likely vary [12, 17, 87]. For instance, Nori et al [12] modeled distribution of five venomous snakes in Argentina for 2030 and 2080.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seven uncorrelated environmental variables (Table 1) related to climate, topography, vegetation, and human footprint were used to develop the four snakes’ habitat suitably models [12, 17, 28, 55, 67-70]. Climatic variables were downloaded from the WorldClim database at 30-seconds spatial resolution [71].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On Earth, between 421,000 and 1.2 million people are envenomed by venomous snakes annually and around 125,000 deaths per year are attributable to snakebite envenoming [1, 6, 14, 15]. Snakebite envenoming is mostly described as a neglected public health issue in the tropics, [2, 6, 16, 17] however, it is also an important challenge for public health in temperate areas like Iran [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing snakebite risk model using venomous snake habitat suitability as an indicating factor: An application of species distribution models in public health research

Yousefi

Kafash

Khani³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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22Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not 23 being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an 24 indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management 25 across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modeling 26 methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy 27 Modeling Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a 28 spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes' habitat 29 suitability (Macrovipera lebetina, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja 30 oxiana) were modeled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are 31 responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability 32 models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi 33 province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at 34 risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 35 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetina, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 36 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. This paper demonstrates application of 37 species distribution modeling in public health research and identified potential snakebite 38 risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes' habitat suitability models as an indicating 39 factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human-snake conflict 40 management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite 3 41 envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest 42 snakebite risk. 43 4 62 identifying environmental drivers of species distribution [42−45] and predicting impacts 63 of climate change on biodiversity [46−51]. SDMs are successfully used to identify 64 suitable habitats of species even in areas with no distribution records [52−54]. Thus, 65 these models can be used to identify suitable habitats of venomous snakes as proxies of 66 snakebite risk [12, 55−57] in data poor regions like Iran. 67 The main goal of this paper was to apply SDMs and produce a spatial risk model 68 for snakebite in Iran. To do this, firstly, five distribution modeling methods [38]: 69 Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy 70 Modeling Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest and distribution data of M. 71 lebetina, E. carinatus, P. persicus and N. oxiana were to produce their habitat suitability 72 models. Secondly, the five habitat suitability models [38−58] of each species were 73combined by ensemble approach and finally the four species ensemble models were 74 multiplied to identify potential snakebite risk. We also in addition, number of villages 75 that are at risk of envenoming by these four snakes determined in Iran. 76 77 Materials and methods 78 Occurrence data 79 Distribution records of the M. lebetina, E. carinatus, P. per...

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“…Studies using niche modeling to estimate snakebite risks in South America are still scarce. Yañez-Arenas et al (2018) identified vulnerable human communities to snakebites in Ecuador and commented on the success of ecological niche modeling to infer geographic patterns of ophidism at continental, national and regional scales. The authors also discuss the importance of this kind of studies when hospital data are scarce or biased, highlighting the importance of conducting studies to evaluate which factors contribute the most to snakebite risk and suggesting that anthropogenic climate change should be considered to anticipate strategies for antivenon distribution.…”

Section: Antivenom Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE GENUS Micrurus WAGLER, 1824 (SERPENTES: ELAPIDAE) AND ANTIVENOM SUPPLY IN RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL

et al. 2019

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The coral snake genus Micrurus has non-aggressive behavior, being responsible for only 0.4% of the reports of snakebites in Brazil. However, although rare, accidents are potentially serious due to rapidly evolving respiratory paralysis. In the last few years, there was an abrupt reduction in the number of hospitals receiving antivenom support in Rio de Janeiro State, and currently the Health Ministry of Brazil distributes the antivenom only to 25 hospitals in 21 municipalities, even so with no data on specific serum provided by each hospital. This study aimed to determine the potential distribution of Micrurus species in Rio de Janeiro State in order to compare potential areas for risk of elapidic accidents with the localities assisted by hospitals with antivenom distribution. We performed ecological niche models to generate maps of potential distribution for all species through several niche algorithms. Based on these results we analyzed and discussed the consequences of this change in the number of hospitals receiving antivenom. Our results revealed the potential occurrence of the genus throughout the State territory and show a partially homogeneous distribution of health units, although the northern region represents an area with a deficiency in hospital coverage. According to our results and data from the Rio de Janeiro State Secretary of Health, it is highly desirable that at least some antivenom service centers in the regions "Metropolitana" and "Baixadas Litorâneas" receive antielapidic serum and that there be an increase in the number of units in "Norte Fluminense" and "Noroeste Fluminense" regions of Rio de Janeiro State.

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Estimating geographic patterns of ophidism risk in Ecuador

Cited by 17 publications

References 22 publications

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Developing snakebite risk model using venomous snake habitat suitability as an indicating factor: An application of species distribution models in public health research

POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE GENUS Micrurus WAGLER, 1824 (SERPENTES: ELAPIDAE) AND ANTIVENOM SUPPLY IN RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL

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