Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates

Ulrich, Jana; Jurado, Oscar E.; Peter, M Atkinson; Scheibel, Marc; Rust, Henning W.

doi:10.3390/w12113119

Cited by 30 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In this regard, Ganguli and Coulibaly [12], Mélèse et al [43] showed that a Bayesian Hierarchical Model approach resulted in reliable credibility intervals for IDF curves. For the rd-GEV approach, we investigate a bootstrap-based method for estimating the uncertainty of d-GEV based return levels in a different study [9]. We also limited our study to using data with hourly frequency, resulting in the value of the (sub-hourly) ν parameter of the d-GEV to be artificially set to zero (what we called the rd-GEV).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another critical issue for future studies is to explore how different dependence structures could impact the performance of the estimation. Furthermore, a comparison with the recent developments in the use of covariates for the rd-GEV approach could result in better skill for such an approach compared with our current MS-GEV one [9].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The QS is always positive and reaches an optimal value at zero. To compare the performance of a model with a reference, we use the Quantile Skill Index (QSI) [9] derived from the Quantile Skill Score QSS = 1 − QS model /QS ref (see [40] for more details on skill scores), defined as…”

Section: Verification and Model Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lehmann et al [6] formulated a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based on the model from [5], and Van de Vyver [7] presented a multi-scale model using Bayesian inference. More recently, Ritschel et al [8] used this model to characterize stochastic precipitation models, and Ulrich et al [9] proposed the addition of spatial covariates to the model from Koutsoyiannis et al [5], extending the work of Fischer et al [10] using spatial covariates to model daily precipitation maxima. These studies make an assumption of stationarity, which may not be valid under a changing climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Jurado

Ulrich

Scheibel

et al. 2020

Water

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To explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between rainfall intensity maxima of different accumulation duration, a recent development for estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a max-stable process. In our study, we aimed to estimate the impact on the performance of the return levels resulting from an IDF model that accounts for such asymptotical dependence. To investigate this impact, we compared the performance of the return level estimates of two IDF models using the quantile skill index (QSI). One IDF model is based on a max-stable process assuming asymptotic dependence; the other is a simplified (or reduced) duration-dependent GEV model assuming asymptotic independence. The resulting QSI shows that the overall performance of the two models is very similar, with the max-stable model slightly outperforming the other model for short durations (d≤10h). From a simulation study, we conclude that max-stable processes are worth considering for IDF curve estimation when focusing on short durations if the model’s asymptotic dependence can be assumed to be properly captured.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Verification and Model Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Jurado

Ulrich

Scheibel

et al. 2020

Water

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“…Following Ritschel et al [8] and Ulrich et al [9], we used the duration dependent GEV (d-GEV) to model i(d) with the distribution…”

Section: Using the Duration-dependent Gevmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the performance of a max-stable process for estimating intensity-duration-frequency curves

Jurado

Ulrich

Rust

2020

Preprint

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<p>A recent development in the modeling of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a spatial max-stable process to explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between durations. To accomplish this, we use a duration-space instead of a geographic-space, following Tyralis and Langousis (2018). The resulting IDF curves can then be used to estimate extreme rainfall for any arbitrary rainfall duration. We aim to determine whether the use of a model that explicitly accounts for the dependence between durations could improve the estimates of extreme rainfall. The performance of the max-stable process is compared to the duration dependent GEV (d-GEV) approach for IDF-curve estimation proposed by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998). The max-stable approach explicitly models the dependence via a parametric model, while the d-GEV approach assumes that the durations are independent. The performance of both approaches is assessed for two scenarios, in a controlled simulation experiment, and for observations from a rain gauge. A Brown-Resnick max-stable process and a duration-dependent GEV was fitted to the data in both scenarios. The performance is measured using the Quantile Skill Score (QSS) with the d-GEV as the reference model. The resulting skill scores show that correctly specifying the dependence structure leads to the max-stable model perfomring similarly to the d-GEV. This pattern was observed also for low and high levels of dependence.</p>

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Responses of Soil Water Potential and Plant Physiological Status to Pulsed Rainfall Events in Arid Northwestern China: Implications for Disclosing the Water‐Use Strategies of Desert Plants

Ma,

Liu,

Zhao

et al. 2024

Ecohydrology

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Soil water potential (SWP) strongly influences plant productivity and ecosystem functioning, particularly in arid regions characterized by sporadic and pulsed rainfall. This work aims to improve understanding of the response of SWP to varied rainfall pulses, and of the water‐use strategies of a widespread C4 shrub (Haloxylon ammodendron, HA) in arid northwestern China. Rainfall manipulation experiments and field measurements on HA were undertaken to explore the response features of SWP and plant physiological status to pulsed rainfall events of varied magnitudes and durations. The physiological state of HA was evaluated by quantifying critical metrics indicative of plant water‐use strategies, including leaf water potential, photosynthetic rate and transpiration rate. The response value of SWP increased with rainfall magnitude and was most affected by three vital factors (antecedent SWP, total rainfall and rainfall intensity). Low antecedent SWP amplifies SWP's sensitivity to subsequent events, accelerating its response to smaller rainfalls (<5 mm) compared with larger ones (>15 mm). Small rainfall can increase SWP by 0.5–2 MPa in the 20‐cm layer, sustaining plant physiological activities under high antecedent SWP conditions (>−3.5 MPa), with a maximum average rise in photosynthetic rate of 9.20 ± 0.45 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1, enhancing HA's water use efficiency to 1.79 ± 0.22 μmol CO2 mmol−1 H2O. Therefore, small events play a vital role in maintaining SWP and promoting water use of desert plants. Given the nature of plants' utilization of small rainfall events, re‐examining ecologically valid SWP thresholds of HA and other similar desert plants is critical.

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Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates

Cited by 30 publications

References 30 publications

Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Evaluating the performance of a max-stable process for estimating intensity-duration-frequency curves

Responses of Soil Water Potential and Plant Physiological Status to Pulsed Rainfall Events in Arid Northwestern China: Implications for Disclosing the Water‐Use Strategies of Desert Plants

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