2016
DOI: 10.3386/w22425
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Estimating Local Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract: We propose a new source of cross-sectional variation that may identify causal impacts of government spending on the economy. We use the fact that a large number of federal spending programs depend on local population levels. Every ten years, the Census provides a count of local populations. Since a different method is used to estimate non-Census year populations, this change in methodology leads to variation in the allocation of billions of dollars in federal spending. Our baseline results follow a treatment-e… Show more

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Cited by 145 publications
(90 citation statements)
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References 68 publications
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“…Recent cross-state studies further corroborate these findings. Suárez Serrato andWingender (2011), Chodorow-Reich et al (2012) and Shoag (2013) assess the effect of the Recovery Act on job creation. Suárez Serrato and Wingender (2011) find that each job-year cost around $30,000 in government spending, suggesting around 3.3 job-years created per $100,000 spent.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Recent cross-state studies further corroborate these findings. Suárez Serrato andWingender (2011), Chodorow-Reich et al (2012) and Shoag (2013) assess the effect of the Recovery Act on job creation. Suárez Serrato and Wingender (2011) find that each job-year cost around $30,000 in government spending, suggesting around 3.3 job-years created per $100,000 spent.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Another strand explicitly analyzes the effect of fiscal stimulus and, in particular, the Recovery Act on employment and income: Romer (2012), Wilson (2012), Chodorow-Reich, Feiveson, Liscow, andWoolston (2012), Conley and Dupor (2013), Serrato and Wingender (2016), Leduc and Wilson (2017), to name a few. The above literature typically ignores general equilibrium effects, which may bias the empirical estimates.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…31 The papers by Serrato and Wingender (2014) and Chodorow-Reich et al (2012) are exceptions in this regard by not including regional fixed effects. The former instead includes state-decade fixed effects, with the local level being the county level.…”
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confidence: 99%