Estimating maintenance budget using Monte Carlo simulation

Srivastava, Atul Kumar; Kumar, Girish; Gupta, Piyush

doi:10.1007/s41872-020-00110-7

Cited by 18 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Prediksi merupakan proses keilmuan dalam memperkirakan kemungkinan yang akan terjadi di masa mendatang secara teratur dan logis berdasarkan fakta yang diperoleh dari masa lalu untuk memperkecil peluang terjadinya kesalahan [1]. Fakta yang digunakan adalah suatu infromasi yang relevan dan sesuai dengan kebutuhan untuk mencari sebuah model dan pola yang dapat memberi kemudahan dalam melakukan prediksi [2].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

Putra

Defit²,

Nurcahyo³

2020

INFEB

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Fulfilling consumer needs is the goal of every business. Owned business capital will affect the readiness to serve consumer demand. The purpose of this study is to predict the level of advertising revenue at Vand Advertising Printing in order to facilitate business owners in preparing business strategies quickly and optimally. This research data is income data from January 2017 to December 2019 which is modeled using the Monte Carlo method. Income level prediction will be carried out annually. Based on the results of the tests that have been done, it is found that the system used to predict the level of advertising revenue with an average accuracy of 90%. The high level of accuracy means that the application of the Monte Carlo method is considered able to predict the level of advertising revenue each year. So that it can make it easier for business owners to choose the right business strategy to increase advertising revenue.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

Putra

Defit²,

Nurcahyo³

2020

INFEB

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“…Penelitian lainnya yang menggunakan metode Monte Carlo yaitu memprediksi kebutuhan dan pengendalian persediaan calcium carbonate di pabrik kelapa sawit dengan menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo. Sumber data penelitian yaitu dari dokumen perusahaan, khususnya laporan harian produksi periode Januari -Mei 2019 [12]. busana ada 18 siswa, jurusan tata boga ada 20 siswa dan jurusan tata kecantikan ada 18 siswa.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Prediksi Tingkat Penerimaan Lulusan Siswa Kejuruan dalam Dunia Usaha dan Industri Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Iftitah

Yunus

2020

JSisfotek

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Vocational High School (SMK) Negeri 4 Kota Jambi is one of the favorite vocational schools in Jambi City which is also the only pure tourism vocational school in Jambi Province. SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi has several vocational majors, namely culinary, beauty, fashion and hospitality. In general, students who choose to attend vocational schools have the hope of being able to work immediately after graduating from school, they do not need to continue to study to be able to work. In this study, researchers will predict the level of acceptance of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo is a method that can find values that are close to the actual value of events that will occur based on the distribution of sampling data. The technique of this method is to select random numbers from the probability distribution to perform the simulation. The data used in this study is the data of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who worked from the 2015/2016 Academic Year to the 2018/2019 Academic Year. Furthermore, the data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method. The simulation will be implemented using PHP programming. The result of this research is the level of prediction accuracy of students of SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who are accepted in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method is 84%.

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“…Kemudian, penelitian Monte Carlo juga dapat mengukur risiko kerugian petani jagung dengan menggunakan 2 ukuran yakni Value at Risk (Var) dan Expected Shortfall (ES) dengan menggunakan data sekunder, sehingga diperoleh nilai risiko melebihi nilai VaR sebesar 8.5472% dari investasi produksi jagung selama satu bulan ke depan [12]. Penelitian terdahulu lainnya Monte Carlo digunakan untuk meningkatkan simulasi cloud menggunakan metode Monte Carlo [13].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Lonjakan Penumpang (Studi Kasus di PT. Tri Arga Travel)

Mardiati

Defit

Nurcahyo

2020

INFEB

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Tri Arga Travel is a company engaged in transportation services. The company really prioritizes the quality of service to consumers. So that on holidays there is usually a surge in passengers that cannot be predicted by the company. This greatly affects service to passengers. The purpose of this research is to predict the surge rate of PT. Tri Arga Travel, making it easier for the leadership of PT. Tri Arga Travel to take a policy when there is a surge in passengers in the future. The data used in this study is data on the number of passengers in 2017, 2018, and 2019 with the aim of padang-perawang. Then, the data is processed using the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is a simulation method that uses random numbers obtained from the Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) to predict the rate of passenger spike in the following year by utilizing the previous year's passenger data. The results obtained from testing the Monte Carlo simulation can be seen that in July it is predicted that there will be a surge in passengers with an average level of accuracy of 86.74%. With a fairly high level of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method can be used as a recommendation to predict the level of passenger spikes and also help in improving services to prospective passengers of PT. Tri Arga Travel.

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Estimating maintenance budget using Monte Carlo simulation

Cited by 18 publications

References 36 publications

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

Prediksi Tingkat Penerimaan Lulusan Siswa Kejuruan dalam Dunia Usaha dan Industri Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Lonjakan Penumpang (Studi Kasus di PT. Tri Arga Travel)

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