Estimating overnight <i>de facto</i> population by forecasting symptomatic variables: an integrated framework

Rigall-I-Torrent, Ricard

doi:10.1002/for.1166

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Large samples are needed for robust estimates of the timing, location, and purpose of temporary moves. Symptomatic indicators such as water consumption, retail sales, and accommodation occupancy have been used as an alternative to survey data to estimate seasonal variation in population numbers in selected localities (Krug, ; Rigall‐I‐Torrent, ), but these data reflect changes in the stock of visitors, rather than the inward and outward flows. In recent years, analysts have also made use of mobile phone data to track population movements and estimate seasonal shifts in populations (Ahas et al ., ; Silm and Ahas, ).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Flux in Australia's Population Geography: Linking Space and Time

Charles‐Edwards

Bell

2013

Popul. Space Place

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Seasonality is integral to many forms of temporary population mobility. To date, however, most research has focused on tourist movements and has been primarily concerned with its impacts on destinations. Less attention has been given to tracing its effects on the localities from which tourists are drawn or to understanding the spatial dynamics that underpin this periodic flux in population. The fact that tourism accounts for a minority of all temporary movements also supports the case for a broader analytical perspective. We aim to redress this neglect by examining seasonal variation in various forms of temporary movement across 77 regions of Australia over the decade 2000-2010, focusing on both origins and destinations. Coupling seasonal factors with cluster analysis and fixed effects models, we show that seasonal mobility across the Australian settlement system is highly structured with spatio-temporal variations reflecting the interplay of climatic variability with institutional constraints and the functional characteristics of regions.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Flux in Australia's Population Geography: Linking Space and Time

Charles‐Edwards

Bell

2013

Popul. Space Place

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“…It has been suggested that the notions of home, place of residence, migration, and population do not suffice to understand increasingly diverse forms of mobilities, often related to tourism and multiple residence (McIntyre et al 2006). Attempts to acknowledge temporary mobility in population measures have been mainly made within tourism studies (Terrier 2006;Rigall-i-Torrent 2010). Müller and Hall (2003) estimated seasonal population redistribution related to second home use in Sweden.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal residence and counterurbanization: the role of second homes in population redistribution in Finland

2016

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Since the late twentieth century, many developed countries have experienced population deconcentration, labelled as counterurbanization. There has been an academic discussion on the meaning, validity and universality of this concept, drivers of counterurbanization and its impacts on rural areas. To date, research on counterurbanization mostly apply static and discrete definitions of residence, migration and population, which is an increasingly simplistic view in the contemporary reality of a growing multitude of forms of mobility, often related to dual residence. Particularly large-scale quantitative studies on counterurbanization are confined by existing statistical practices. This paper attempts to overcome this obstacle and describe the transformation of the settlement system in Finland acknowledging the role of second home mobility. To achieve this goal, it introduces two alternative measures of population, seasonal and average population, and analyses their spatial dynamics between the years 1990 and 2010 based on georeferenced grid statistical data. The study finds that although registered population has been concentrating during the period in analysis, seasonal population has been increasingly dispersed due to the growing number of second homes. It shows that the counterurbanization process, though not noticed by conventional statistics, does occur in Finland, manifested by seasonal rather than permanent moves. The article concludes that various forms of mobility should be taken into account when analysing the urban-rural population dynamics and transformations of settlement systems as well as in rural development planning.

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“…Symptomatic data sets such as water or electricity usage, while providing fine-grained temporal data, are often spatially discrete and provide little or no information on the composition of populations. Furthermore, these data sets are often non-stationary over space and time as other factors such as climate and seasonal effects impact usage [ 11 ]. Symptomatic data are usually collected by companies or institutions for specific geographical areas, making it difficult to consolidate them into larger national datasets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A data fusion approach to the estimation of temporary populations: An application to Australia

et al. 2021

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This study establishes a new method for estimating the monthly Average Population Present (APP) in Australian regions. Conventional population statistics, which enumerate people where they usually live, ignore the significant spatial mobility driving short term shifts in population numbers. Estimates of the temporary or ambient population of a region have several important applications including the provision of goods and services, emergency preparedness and serve as more appropriate denominators for a range of social statistics. This paper develops a flexible modelling framework to generate APP estimates from an integrated suite of conventional and novel data sources. The resultant APP estimates reveal the considerable seasonality in small area populations across Australia’s regions alongside the contribution of domestic and international visitors as well as absent residents to the observed monthly variations. The modelling framework developed in the paper is conceived in a manner such that it can be adapted and re-deployed both for use with alternative data sources as well as other situational contexts for the estimation of temporary populations.

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Estimating overnight de facto population by forecasting symptomatic variables: an integrated framework

Cited by 5 publications

References 36 publications

Seasonal Flux in Australia's Population Geography: Linking Space and Time

Seasonal Flux in Australia's Population Geography: Linking Space and Time

Seasonal residence and counterurbanization: the role of second homes in population redistribution in Finland

A data fusion approach to the estimation of temporary populations: An application to Australia

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