18Characterising connectivity between geographically separated biological populations is a common goal in 19 many fields. Recent approaches to understanding connectivity between malaria parasite populations, with 20 implications for disease control efforts, have used estimates of relatedness based on identity-by-descent (IBD). 21 However, uncertainty around estimated relatedness has not been accounted for to date. IBD-based relat-22 edness estimates with uncertainty were computed for pairs of monoclonal Plasmodium falciparum samples 23 collected from five cities on the Colombian-Pacific coast where long-term clonal propagation of P. falciparum 24 is frequent. The cities include two official ports, Buenaventura and Tumaco, that are separated geographically 25 but connected by frequent marine traffic. The fraction of highly-related sample pairs (whose classification 26 accounts for uncertainty) was greater within cities versus between. However, based on both the fraction 27 of highly-related sample pairs and on a threshold-free approach (Wasserstein distances between parasite 28 populations) connectivity between Buenaventura and Tumaco was disproportionally high. Buenaventura-
29Tumaco connectivity was consistent with three separate transmission events involving parasites from five 30 different clonal components (groups of statistically indistinguishable parasites identified under a graph theo-31 retic framework). To conclude, P. falciparum population connectivity on the Colombian-Pacific coast abides 32 by accessibility not isolation-by-distance, potentially implicating marine traffic in malaria transmission with 33 opportunities for targeted intervention. Further investigations are required to test this and alternative hy-34 potheses. For the first time in malaria epidemiology, we account for uncertainty around estimated relatedness 35 (an important consideration for future studies that plan to use genotype versus whole genome sequence data 36 to estimate IBD-based relatedness); we also use a threshold-free approach to compare parasite populations, 37 and identify clonal components in a statistically principled manner. The approaches we employ could be 38 adapted to other recombining organisms with mixed mating systems, thus have broad relevance. 39 1 In many research fields genetic data are used to help characterise connectivity between geographically dis-41 parate biological populations, with numerous applications in conservation, agriculture, and public health.
42Patterns of genetic similarity between pathogen populations help us understand how the disease spreads. 43 Patterns of relatedness (a measure of genetic similarity) between malaria parasites in different human pop-44 ulations, for instance, help characterise the connectivity between them, thus guide the design of targeted 45 public health interventions [1]. 46 Several methods are employed to measure genetic similarity and thus characterise connectivity. Phylo-47 genetic methods, in which genetic distances between individuals are measured in unit...