Estimating the accident potential of an Ontario driver

Hauer, Ezra; Persaud, Bhagwant; Smiley, Alison; Duncan, D.

doi:10.1016/0001-4575(91)90044-6

Cited by 43 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Those who chose to appear in court had more prior violations and crashes. Consistent with previous research, we found that prior speeding violations and crashes were independent predictors for repeat speeding tickets and subsequent crashes (28, 35-37). However, driving histories cannot fully capture risk-taking propensity because most moving violations, including alcohol-impaired driving, are not detected by police.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Are Current Law Enforcement Strategies Associated with a Lower Risk of Repeat Speeding Citations and Crash Involvement? A Longitudinal Study of Speeding Maryland Drivers

Amr

Braver

et al. 2011

Annals of Epidemiology

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PURPOSE To determine whether traffic court appearances and different court verdicts were associated with risk of subsequent speeding citations and crashes. METHODS A cohort of 29,754 Maryland drivers ticketed for speeding who either went to court or paid fines by mail in May/June 2003 was followed for 3 years. Drivers appearing in court were categorized by verdicts: 1) not guilty, 2) suspension of prosecution/no prosecution (STET/NP), 3) case dismissed, 4) probation before judgment and fines (PBJ), or 5) fines and demerit points. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHR). RESULTS Court appearances were associated with lower risk of subsequent speeding citations (AHR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88-0.96), but higher risk of crashes (AHR=1.25; 95% CI: 1.16-1.35). PBJ was associated with significantly lower repeat speeding tickets (AHR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.75-0.91) and a non-significant decrease in crashes (AHR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.75-1.02). Both repeat speeding tickets and subsequent crashes were significantly lower in the STET/NP group. CONCLUSIONS PBJ and STET/NP may reduce speeding and crashes, but neither verdict eliminated excess crash risk among drivers who choose court appearances. Randomized controlled evaluations of speeding countermeasures are needed to inform traffic safety policies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Are Current Law Enforcement Strategies Associated with a Lower Risk of Repeat Speeding Citations and Crash Involvement? A Longitudinal Study of Speeding Maryland Drivers

Amr

Braver

et al. 2011

Annals of Epidemiology

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“…Daigneault et al (2002) attempted to determine crash predictors for older drivers using previous convictions or crashes and concluded that prior crashes are a better predictor for crash risk than prior convictions. Hauer et al (1991) concluded that if the prediction model makes use of the driver's previous crash records, the performance of their multivariate model for a crash is notably improved. Chen et al (1995) employed logistic regression analysis to identify drivers who were most likely to have one or more at-fault crash involvements after their crashes, based on their records prior to their at-fault crash involvements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crash involvement of drivers with multiple crashes

Chandraratna¹,

Stamatiadis

Stromberg

2006

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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“…Due to the great advantage of "regression-to-the-mean" bias reduction, EB approach has gradually become the standard and staple of professional practice. Interested readers can consult with the relative references (Hauer, 1992;Hauer et al, 1988Hauer et al, , 1991Hauer & Persaud, 1987) for details and application tutorial. The section merely describes the analytics and corresponding calculation procedures of the method.…”

Section: Bayesian Technique and Accident Reduction Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring an Alternative Method of Hazardous Location Identification: Using Accident Count and Accident Reduction Potential Jointly

Cheng

Jia

2014

Journal of Transportation Safety & Security

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As one of the initial steps to improve the overall safety within a road network, hot spots identification (HSID) has been the focus of many research efforts. Over the past 60 years a wide range of HSID methods have been proposed and applied. One dimension of diversity among these methods lies within the selection of one of two different criteria: the number of accidents or the accident reduction potential. Currently, there is a lack of conclusive evidence showing which criterion performs better. To avoid prematurely favoring one or the other, the authors explore the joint use of both criteria to conduct HSID. New evaluation indexes are proposed and employed. The empirical and full Bayesian estimates and the typical estimate are explored. The evaluation is conducted based on the accident data of two types of Arizona road sections. Additionally, four different sizes of hot spots are assessed. By using the proposed evaluation indexes, the results illustrate that when used in conjunction this new method significantly outperforms the methods using the individual criterion. The findings indicate the advantage of the combination in screening the hot spots with higher accident counts and reduction potentials.

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Estimating the accident potential of an Ontario driver

Cited by 43 publications

References 9 publications

Are Current Law Enforcement Strategies Associated with a Lower Risk of Repeat Speeding Citations and Crash Involvement? A Longitudinal Study of Speeding Maryland Drivers

Are Current Law Enforcement Strategies Associated with a Lower Risk of Repeat Speeding Citations and Crash Involvement? A Longitudinal Study of Speeding Maryland Drivers

Crash involvement of drivers with multiple crashes

Exploring an Alternative Method of Hazardous Location Identification: Using Accident Count and Accident Reduction Potential Jointly

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